NABE Survey Sees Tepid Growth Through 2013

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By Trey Thoelcke Published
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The latest outlook survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) indicates that economists see a “tepid, albeit improving” outlook developing for the United States.

Respondents to the October survey expect inflation-adjusted growth in gross domestic product of 1.9% in 2012, then rising to 2.4% for 2013. That’s less than the pace of growth expected in the group’s May 2012 survey, when economists forecast 3.1% growth by the end of next year. But growth is expected to improve with each succeeding quarter.

However, NABE’s survey forecasts an uptick in the jobless rate to 8.1% in the fourth quarter, then eventually falling to 7.8% by the end of 2013. Monthly job growth in 2013 is expected to average 155,000 nonfarm payrolls.

As for consumer spending, the panel of 44 professional forecasters sees growth of 1.9% in 2012, followed by 2% for 2013.

The survey also predicts housing starts at 750,000 units in 2012, compared with a forecast in May of 720,000. Starts will hit 850,000 in 2013, respondents said.

The economists on average do not expect the so-called fiscal cliff to materialize, the survey found. But the views of NABE panelists varied widely on the future of various tax cuts.

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About the Author Trey Thoelcke →

Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.

Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community. He previously oversaw the 24/7 Climate Insights site, managing editorial operations and content strategy, and currently oversees and creates content for My Investing News.

Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.

Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, overseeing a long-running critique group and moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions. He lives with his family in an old house in the Midwest.

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