Is a Nine-Day Winning Streak in Emerging Market ETFs Too Much?

Photo of Jon C. Ogg
By Jon C. Ogg Published
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How long should a winning streak really last in the stock market? A casual market observer might think the market has a 50-50 chance of being up or down on any given day, so what about when a market rises for nine straight days? Now, compound this nine-day winning streak with the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSEMKT: EEM) as the key emerging markets exchange traded funds (ETF).

After closing at $39.41 on March 18, 2014, the last down day in the market was on March 19, when this ETF closed down handily on active volume at $38.57. The difference here is massive as there has not been a losing day since:

  • March 31, 2014: $41.01
  • March 28, 2014: $40.74
  • March 27, 2014: $40.42
  • March 26, 2014: $39.90
  • March 25, 2014: $39.81
  • March 24, 2014: $39.36
  • March 21, 2014: $38.98
  • March 20, 2014: $38.74
  • March 19, 2014: $38.57
  • March 18, 2014: $39.41

What is happening is a backing off of the rate-hike timing, better economic data, hopes of a China stimulus, a decreasing of tensions with Russia over Crimea and Ukraine, and the S&P 500 Index hitting all-time highs. Another driving force is that many emerging markets have been battered.

In 2013, the iShares China Large-Cap Index (NYSEMKT: FXI) was down 2.1% and the WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (NYSEMKT: EPI) was down 9.3%. Even the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped Index (NYSEMKT: EWZ) fell by a whopping 17.5% in 2013. And the Market Vectors Russia ETF Trust (NYSEMKT: RSX) managed to drop almost 1% in 2013, but this was battered during the height of tensions with Russia and the West.

Keep in mind that the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index (NYSEMKT: EEM) is dominated by the following 10 nations with a total weighting of 87.90%:

  • China 17.95%
  • South Korea 15.84%
  • Taiwan 11.94%
  • Brazil 11.01%
  • South Africa 7.73%
  • India 6.67%
  • Mexico 5.12%
  • Russia 5.09%
  • Malaysia 3.88%
  • Indonesia 2.66%

If the gains of 0.6% to $41.25 on the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets hold up on Tuesday, then the emerging markets ETF streak will be nine days, going into a key unemployment report in three trading days.

Photo of Jon C. Ogg
About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.

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