We have heard it almost constantly for the past half-year. The market is poised for a bear raid, the recession is coming, the economy is horrible, companies are laying off people, energy companies will go bankrupt. The shrill drone of bad news has indeed taken its toll, and the data that is being posted indicates just that.
In the new “Picturing the Weeks Opportunities” research gem that comes out every weekend from T.J. Thornton and his outstanding team at Jefferies, he makes the case that everything from S&P 500 dividend spreads to the 10-year Treasury yields, to investors net bullishness, to 52-week lows, are at levels not seen since the darkest of times, including the 2008 meltdown. He acknowledges that the rally has helped but makes the case that it could have much more room to run.
Should the rally continue to pick up steam, equity investors will be well served to own stocks that will benefit among the most. We screened the Jefferies Franchise Picks stock list for companies that could excel in an extended bull move, and found four that look outstanding. All are rated Buy at Jefferies.
Activision Blizzard
This company reported very mixed fourth-quarter results but remains a Franchise pick at Jefferies. Activision Blizzard Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) develops and publishes online, personal computer (PC), video game console, handheld, mobile and tablet games worldwide. The company develops and publishes interactive entertainment software products through retail channels or digital downloads to a range of gamers.
The company’s Call of Duty franchise, which has propelled earnings for this industry powerhouse for years, came out just in time for the holidays with “Call of Duty: Black Ops 3,” which showed up as one of the top-selling games over the three-day Black Friday and Christmas selling periods.
The big news last fall was the company’s purchase of Candy Crush saga creator King Digital Entertainment. Most on Wall Street think the buy is an outstanding move for the company, and specifically the synergies between the two companies is cited. Many analysts feel that the key to unlocking some monster value is creating and cross-promoting the Activision product inside the King Digital mobile distribution network.
The fourth-quarter revenues came in below consensus expectations as softness in what Jefferies calls “casual” brands like Skylanders and Guitar Hero weighed on results. The firm points out that Activision has a half a billion monthly active users, putting it in the ranks behind digital giants like Facebook and YouTube. With shares trading at a very reasonable 13 times estimated 2016 earnings, Jefferies is a buyer of the stock on the current weakness.
Investors receive a 0.82% dividend. The Jefferies price target for the stock is $45. The Thomson/First Call consensus target is $37.92. The stock closed Friday at $31.89.
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Boeing
Shares of this top aerospace industrial has dropped a whopping 18% since the beginning of the year, but the stock is a Franchise pick at Jefferies. Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) designs, develops, manufactures, sells, services and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight and launch systems and services worldwide.
Jefferies has increased confidence in continuing good demand and notes that the company has made announcements in the past that support the thesis that productivity and margins will continue to improve. 787 execution is good as the company works through the backlog, and cash flow looks to be strong with 787 deliveries and C-17 orders. Some Wall Street analysts also point to low oil prices as a bullish indicator for the top carriers that are Boeing’s big customers.
Jefferies thinks that some of the most recent quarterly earnings report was misunderstood, and that with shares trading at a very cheap 10 times free cash flow the valuation is the best in some time. The firm notes that while there was an accounting change for KC-46 tankers, the 777 rate change was already in the Jefferies numbers, and the 737 rate boost was a positive that was not figured into numbers.
Boeing investors receive a 3.7% dividend. The $165 Jefferies price target is higher than the consensus target of $141. The shares closed on Friday at $118.16.
Alphabet
This is the top pick at Jefferies and continues to dominate the technology landscape. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) builds technology products and provides services to organize information. It offers Google Search, which provides information online; Google Now, which offers information to users when they need it; AdWords, an auction-based advertising program; AdSense, which enables websites that are part of the Google network to deliver ads; DoubleClick Ad Exchange, a marketplace for the trading display ad space; and other advertising platforms, such as AdExchange and AdMob.
The company also provides YouTube, which offers video, interactive and other ad formats; Android, an open source mobile software platform; hardware products, including Chromebook, Chrome OS devices, Chromecast and Nexus devices; Google Play, a cloud-based digital entertainment store for apps, music, books and movies; Google Drive, a place for users to create, share, collaborate and keep their stuff; and Google Wallet, a virtual wallet for in-store contactless payments.
Many Wall Street analysts have lauded the numerous upcoming catalysts and point out that the company showed consistent revenue growth, margin stabilization and finally gave cash back in the form of a $5.1 billion stock buyback last year. Last, but certainly not least, the company remains one of the best overall portfolio plays that focuses on the biggest Internet trends: The Mobile/Multi-Screen shift, wearable devices, video, the Internet of Things and much more. Alphabet delivers investors the full package.
The earnings continue to astound with constant currency growth of 24%, and non GAAP earnings per share that jumped 26% year over year. Jefferies teams YouTube, mobile growth and the aforementioned stock buyback as continuing positives and reasons for owning shares.
The Jefferies price target is $950. The consensus target is $925.29. The stock closed on Friday at $724.86.
NVIDIA
This is top tech stock also is a member of the Franchise picks list. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ: NVDA) is a leader when it comes to supplying graphics processing technology for the 3D graphics market, including desktop graphics processors and gaming consoles. It is also moving into visual computing chips for cars, mobile devices and supercomputers. NVIDIA has a technology partnership with electric car maker Tesla.
The company has been able to use their ability to leverage past investments, with a more controlled spending structure ahead on unified, which enables strong cash flow that is allowing a focus on capital return, which is currently estimated to be $1 billion next year.
The company posted monster earnings recentlym beating both sales and earnings estimates handily, while also providing guidance that was better than expected. Jefferies feels the stock is maturing into a platform company from a pure chip company, and see the stock as a call option on four secular trends: virtual reality, PC gaming, chips in the automobile industry and graphic processing units in the cloud.
NVIDIA investors receive a 1.45% dividend. The Jefferies price objective is $40, and the consensus target is $32.96. The stock closed Friday at $31.68.
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The Jefferies team has strong growth stock picks that all have big upside potential to the firm’s posted target prices. While not suitable for more conservative accounts, they certainly make sense for more aggressive growth portfolios, especially if the market extends the current rally.
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