Some of the best advice ever given from financial gurus is to do exactly the opposite of what the consensus on Wall Street is. Now while that kind of straight-up contrarian stance doesn’t always work, it is sometimes helpful because when the blinders are on and the call doesn’t seem to match the circumstances, that can be a winner.
In a series of new research reports from Deutsche Bank, one analysts admits to getting it wrong on a company that just mauled earnings estimates, but on some other top companies the firm was right on the mark. Here we highlight three companies that performed well during the first quarter and could be poised for a very big 2016.
The huge social media leader has posted gigantic numbers which truly blew most of Wall Street away and traded to all-time highs this week. Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ: FB) has Instagram, which some analysts see revenues tripling in 2017 over 2016. Premium video and Graph Search capabilities help strengthen the social media giant’s earnings flow. Top analysts have noted in the past that Facebook and Instagram account for 5% of users’ total media time, but the company doesn’t come close to capturing 5% of total advertising budgets.
Most Wall Street analysts point to the fact that Facebook remains the top beneficiary of the adoption of mobile internet trends, with total U.S. internet time spent on Facebook and Messenger. Other metrics continue to explode, and the key is that no viable challengers are anywhere in sight. The social media juggernaut printed revenue and EBITDA that were 2% and 11% above consensus, and well above Wall Street expectations on Wednesday. The analysts admit they missed the call but are adding to positions here.
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Analysts also remain bullish on Facebook Live, which was first rolled out only for iPhone users with verified accounts — a designation limited to journalists, celebrities and other public persons — but now anyone with an Android or iPhone can shoot live video from their phone, which can be viewed by Facebook users on any platform. To use it, you just go to the place where you would normally post a status update, but press the icon that shows a person inside a circle. This is yet another huge add-on for the social media market leader.
The Deutsche Bank price objective for the stock was raised from $140 to $160. The consensus price target is lower at $135.30, but that number is bound to go higher. The shares closed most recently at $116.73.
O’Reilly Automotive
The automotive parts sector has been, and has stayed, on fire for the past couple of years. O’Reilly Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: ORLY) is one of the largest specialty retailers of automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment and accessories in the United States, serving both the do-it-yourself and professional service provider markets.
Its stores also offer enhanced services and programs comprising used oil, oil filter and battery recycling; battery, wiper and bulb replacement; battery diagnostic testing; electrical and module testing; check engine light code extraction; loaner tool program; drum and rotor resurfacing; custom hydraulic hoses; professional paint shop mixing and related materials; and machine shops. Its stores provide customers a selection of brand name, house brands and private label products for domestic and imported automobiles, vans and trucks.
The company reported first-quarter earnings of $255.4 million, or $2.59 per share. That beat Wall Street expectations. The average estimate of 11 analysts surveyed by Zacks Investment Research was for earnings of $2.49 per share. The auto parts retailer posted revenue of $2.1 billion in the period, also exceeding consensus forecasts of $2.06 billion. The Deutsche Bank analysts note that the company’s operating margin is now higher than that of AutoZone.
Many on Wall Street have applauded the company and see near-term secular growth and gains in market share driven by high quality of services and strong management.
The $300 Deutsche Bank price target is higher than the consensus target of $295.47. The stock closed on Thursday at $265.03.
PayPal
This company was spun-off from eBay last year. PayPal Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: PYPL) operates as a technology platform company that enables digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants worldwide. It enables businesses of various sizes to accept payments from merchant websites, mobile devices and applications, as well as at offline retail locations through a range of payment solutions across its payment platform, including PayPal, PayPal Credit, Venmo and Braintree products. That platform allows customers to pay and get paid, withdraw funds to their bank accounts and hold balances in their PayPal accounts in various currencies.
Top analysts think that solid revenue growth over the next five years is possible and the scarcity value, or lack of competition, could help drive the multiple for the company. Some Wall Street analysts have pointed to the new acquisitions PayPal has made, like Venmo and Paydiant, that are leveragable with the combination of Paydiant. Many also think that the eBay separation likely will help the company’s positioning with large merchants.
The company reported that total revenue rose 19% to $2.54 billion in the quarter ended March 31, while net income jumped 43% to $365 million, or $0.30 per share. PayPal’s active accounts rose 11.5% to 184 million in the first quarter, topping the average analyst estimate of 182.8 million, according to research firm FactSet. Total payment volumes surged 28.6% to $81.06 billion.
The Deutsche Bank price target is posted at $44, and the consensus is lower at $42.38. The shares closed Thursday at $40.07.
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Three top companies that are dominating their respective industries and also look to have a strong path not only for the rest of the year, but way into the future. Investors may want to look for a market pullback, or buy partial positions now and keep some dry powder.
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