Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F | F Price Prediction) stock has performed terribly over the past year. Before the huge tariff-delay market rally, the stock was down 35% to about $9 a share. The S&P 500 was 5% higher in that time.
A Bernstein analyst has slashed its $9.40 Ford price target to $7.00 and downgraded the stock to Underperform from Market Perform. According to Yahoo, the reasons given were “Ford’s adjusted earnings are expected to fall 41.2% in 2025 and 36.4% in 2026, with free cash flow projection lowered by more than 35%. Combined tariff and consumer headwinds will erase $6.7 billion in automotive free cash flow from 2025 to 2027.”
Ford’s U.S. sales have been fairly healthy. However, tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada would cripple its profits. While President Trump has delayed those tariffs by 90 days, the threat remains.
Ford’s first-quarter U.S. sales were good. Yet, concerns remain that its position in China will deteriorate because of a lack of electric vehicle (EV) models. Local companies, led by BYD, dominate the market. Tesla’s sales there are strong as well. Ford made about $600 million in China last year.
Ford’s biggest challenge, and the one that hampered its share price, is its poor position in EVs. The company committed $30 billion to EV development and production. Management said its annual EV run rate would reach 600,000 in 2024.
Ford sold 501,291 cars in the United States in the first quarter of 2025. EV sales for the period were only 22,550, which was an increase of just 11.5% year over year. Sales of its EV flagship F-150 Lightning fell 7.2% to 7,187. Ford has had to offer extraordinary incentives to bring in customers for its EVs.
The Bernstein comments reflect those of much of Wall Street. Ford’s future is in the EV industry, but it is doing poorly.
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