Live: Ford (NYSE: F) Earnings After the Bell – Is Its Dividend Safe?

Post-Earnings Move: 🔻 -4.32%

What Happened:
Revenue ($50.2B) and adjusted EPS ($0.37) beat, but GAAP net income swung to a loss on one-time EV and warranty charges. Full-year EBIT guidance was reinstated, but lower than February’s original.

Why the Stock Dropped:
Despite operational momentum, investors focused on rising tariff drag ($2B EBIT impact), GAAP losses, and Ford Blue weakness. Model e is growing but still bleeding red.

My Take:
Ford Pro is a gem, but macro and policy headwinds are stealing the spotlight. Until tariff clarity improves, expect the stock to trade defensively around cash flow and dividend safety.

1. Ford Pro Still Dominates

• Revenue: $18.8B (+11% YoY)

• EBIT: $2.3B with 12.3% margin

• Paid software/service subscriptions: +24% YoY to 757K

Software & services now make up 17% of Ford Pro EBIT trailing 12M

2. Ford Model e: Revenue Doubled, Losses Widened

• Revenue: $2.4B (+105%)

• EBIT: -$1.3B (worse YoY)

Losses stemmed from tariffs, EV plant startup costs, and next-gen R&D
Excluding tariffs, Mustang Mach-E & F-150 Lightning EBIT was flat YoY, a modest win.

3. Ford Blue: Pricing Power Offset by Tariffs

• Revenue: $25.8B (-3% YoY)

• EBIT: $661M vs. $1.17B a year ago

Despite “profitable share gains” and cost improvements, the segment was hit by a tough YoY comp from last year’s F-150 launch.

• CEO Jim Farley emphasized Ford+ execution and Ford Pro’s high-margin model:

  “Ford Pro is a unique competitive advantage driving both top and bottom-line growth while creating new high-margin revenue streams from software and physical services.”

• CFO Sherry House added:

  “This marks our fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year cost improvement excluding tariffs. Our balance sheet continues to strengthen — we’re remaking Ford into a more durable business.”

Ford declared a 15 cent Q3 dividend, signaling confidence in cash generation despite net losses.

Ford reinstated full-year guidance after pulling it last quarter:

• Adjusted EBIT: $6.5B–$7.5B

• Adj. Free Cash Flow: $3.5B–$4.5B

• Capital Spending: ~$9B

• Tariff-related EBIT headwind: ~$2B (up from $1.5B previously)

➡️ This is a lower EBIT range than the original February guide ($7.0B–$8.5B), but reflects confidence in cost improvements and strong cash flow momentum.

As of 3:13 p.m. ET Ford shares are now down 1.85% for the day.

At around 3 p.m., Jerome Powell said there has been no decision made on cutting rates at the September meeting. Immediately after the comment, Treasury yields jumped 6 basis points and stocks fell.

Ford shares were caught in the crossfire, dropping nearly 1% between 2:45 p.m. and 3:10 p.m. ET. We said earlier to expect volatility during Powell’s press conference and we’re now seeing it.

On July 9th RBC Capital raised its price target on Ford to $10 from a prior target of $9.

RBC maintained a ‘Sector Perform’ rating on the company’s stock. RBC is worried that consensus may be too high for the second quarter.

We’re just two hours away from Ford reporting earnings where we’ll see whether the company can top Wall Street’s expectations of $43.93 billion in sales.

Jerome Powell is holding a press conference at 2:30 to discuss the Federal Open Market Committee’s July interest-rate decision.

Betting markets are placing a 99% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged, but commentary from Powell and other details will be important. There’s a chance that multiple Fed governors will vote against keeping rates locked.

The big picture: even without a rate cut, there could be significant volatility late in the trading day. If Ford shares are moving, it’s likely unrelated to traders making earnings bets and more related to big money movements after Powell’s press conference.

Here’s what Wall Street expects when Ford reports tonight:

• Revenue: $43.93 billion
• Adjusted EPS: $.33
• Net Income (GAAP): $1.26 billion

After General Motors struggled with the impacts of tariffs on auto sales, close attention will be paid to what Ford has to say about the ongoing situation.

Another area to watch will be Ford’s dividend payment. The company’s payout ratio stands at 45% in the past twelve months, but ongoing geopolitical uncertainty puts it at more risk.