Live Coverage: Will Starbucks (SBUX) Beat 3Q Earnings?
Live Updates
Pull Quotes From Call
“We are ahead of our expectations… We’re not just getting back to Starbucks. We are building a better Starbucks.”
CEO Brian Niccol
This line signals a tone shift from reactive to proactive. While prior quarters emphasized stabilization, Niccol is now asserting control of the narrative: Starbucks isn’t just fixing operations — it’s setting up for a platform shift in FY26, with innovation and margin rebuild at the core.
“Green Apron service is Starbucks’ biggest investment ever in operating standards and customer service.”
CEO Brian Niccol
This is the heart of the turnaround. Green Apron isn’t just about labor optimization — it’s a multi-pronged system overhaul combining staffing, peak deployment, and SmartQ AI to standardize throughput. It’s also key to transaction comps recovering.
“We still have an opportunity to meet the demand we already have by reducing unacceptably high out of stocks.”
CEO Brian Niccol
Niccol is being candid — inventory availability remains a drag. But by flagging it as solvable and showing early pilot wins, he sets expectations for future comp lift from operational blocking and tackling.
“We’ve received significant interest from more than 20 interested parties [for a China partner]. We remain committed… and want to retain a meaningful stake.”
CEO Brian Niccol
Starbucks is likely prepping for partial monetization of its China unit, which could unlock capital while still retaining upside. Expect follow-up coverage as this process matures — it could reshape the international thesis.
“We’re fixing our cost structure and finding offsets across our P&L to support investments at the store level.”
Investors wanted clarity on how Starbucks funds its turnaround. This line confirms they’re finding self-funding levers, reducing reliance on promotions and restructuring to preserve margins while investing.
Earnings Call Underway-- More updates to come
Starbucks earnings call is now kicked off and we will share updates at it continues.
First Reaction to Earnings
Post-Earnings Move: +3.29%
What Happened:
-
Big EPS miss ($0.50 vs. $0.84), but comps and margins came in above whisper expectations.
-
Management said they’re “ahead of schedule” on the turnaround and promised “a wave of innovation” in FY26.
-
Global store count grew faster than expected (+308 net new).
Why the Stock Rose:
-
Sentiment was extremely low — SBUX was flat YTD going into earnings.
-
Despite ugly optics, bulls saw clear evidence of bottoming: U.S. comp transactions were still down, but improving.
-
Management tone was decisively forward-looking, and discretionary tax hits were explained.
Tactical Take:
-
It’s a classic “bad number, good reaction” setup.
-
Investors are likely rotating into the name on the view that worst is over, with easier comps ahead.
-
Q4 will need to validate the inflection with sequential margin rebound and traffic growth.
More number updates
| KPI | Q3 FY25 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Global Comp Sales | -2% | ↓ |
| U.S. Transaction Growth | -4% | ↓ (vs. -6%) |
| Global Store Count | 41,097 | +4.1% |
| Operating Margin (Non-GAAP) | 10.1% | ↓ 660bps |
| Effective Tax Rate | 31.8% | ↑ 700bps |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.50 | -46% YoY |
What Changed vs. Q2
-
Operating margin collapsed from 15.9% in Q2 to 9.9% in Q3.
-
U.S. comps remained negative for the third straight quarter despite AI and app improvements.
-
One-time costs related to Leadership Experience 2025 and a discrete tax hit drove bottom-line pressure.
-
Store count growth and China transactions (+6%) were relative bright spots.
Stock up 2.2, Revenue Beat
Starbucks reported inline revenue but a major EPS miss in Q3 FY25, with steep margin compression and weak traffic trends outweighing progress on its “Back to Starbucks” turnaround. Revenue landed at $9.5B vs. $9.50B est, while non-GAAP EPS came in at $0.50 vs. $0.84 est, down 46% YoY.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.5B | $9.50B | ✅ Inline |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.50 | $0.84 | ❌ Miss |
| Global Comp Sales | -2% | ~0–1% est. | ❌ Miss |
| U.S. Comp Transactions | -4% | -2% to flat | ❌ Miss |
| Net New Stores | +308 | +200–250 est | ✅ Beat |
Starbucks did not issue new numeric guidance, but CFO Cathy Smith flagged a $0.11 EPS headwind from non-recurring investments and tax items. Management emphasized a FY26 acceleration with a “wave of innovation” and hinted that foundational fixes are largely complete.
Trading closing and Starbuck up next with earnings
Starbucks stock is trending down, .7%, as the trading day wraps up and 3Q earnings coming shortly. Stay on this page as we send live updates of earnings how the stock trends after-hours.
Starbucks (NYSE:SBUX | SBUX Price Prediction) is set to report fiscal Q3 2025 results after the bell, with Wall Street expecting modest sequential improvement from a weak Q2. Shares are flat YTD, as its “Back to Starbucks” strategy has yet to yield material top-line or margin recovery. This quarter will test investor patience, especially around traffic trends, partner engagement, and early returns on reworked store formats and AI deployment.
Consensus Estimates:
– Revenue: $9.50 billion
– EPS (Normalized): $0.84
– FY 2025 Revenue: $37.29 billion
– FY 2025 EPS: $2.88
Compared to FY2024, those figures imply flat to slightly positive revenue growth (+1–2%) and a potential double-digit EPS decline, depending on Q4 recovery
Key Areas to Watch Tonight
-
U.S. Traffic and Store Productivity- North America drives 70%+ of operating income.
CEO Brian Niccol cited signs of a “green wave” in partner morale and early stabilization in U.S. traffic. Investors need tangible proof — positive comp transactions, improved peak throughput, and staffing model ROI. -
Mobile, Order Sequencing, and App Enhancements- AI is central to the “Back to Starbucks” execution layer.
Starbucks began scaling its new order sequencing engine and Green Apron model to 2,000+ stores in May. Management said it cut peak wait times by 2 minutes in pilots — today’s call will reveal scale and stickiness. -
Summer LTOs and Menu Innovation Impact –Starbucks’ growth hinges on beverage-driven traffic.
The summer campaign includes return of Refreshers with Pearls, a Horchata Oat Milkshake, and new Frappuccino variants. Analysts will seek comp lift from these launches vs. last year’s offerings. -
China and International Recovery- International comps have been weak and volatile.
Q2 showed mixed results — Japan and the Middle East were strong, while China faced pricing headwinds. Updates on China’s sugar-free rollout and loyalty recovery will be closely watched.
What To Track
| KPI | Q2 FY25 | Q3 FY25E | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global Comp Sales | -1% | ~0% to +1% | ↗ slight |
| U.S. Transaction Growth | -4% | -2% to flat | ↗ improving |
| Global Store Count (net adds) | +213 stores | +200–250 est. | ↔ steady |
What Changed Since Q2
-
EPS guidance pressure emerged after a -14.6% Q2 EPS miss.
-
North American comp declines stabilized but remain negative.
-
Green Apron labor model scaled to 2,000+ stores starting May.
-
Menu innovation and digital enhancements launched in June/July.
How Starbucks Stock Performed After Recent Earnings
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY25 | ❌ -14.6% | -3.2% | -5.6% | -6.1% |
| Q1 FY25 | ✅ +3.0% | +2.1% | +3.7% | +4.0% |
| Q4 FY24 | ❌ -10.1% | -2.5% | -4.0% | -4.9% |
| Q3 FY24 | ✅ 0.0% | +0.4% | +1.2% | +1.0% |
Starbucks has averaged a -1.2% stock move 7 days post-earnings over the past four quarters.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
© 24/7 Wall Street
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks