Live: Can DraftKings Keep the Rally Going After Earnings Tonight
Key Points
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Street modeling 84% YoY EPS growth as CAC efficiency improves and NFL season nears.
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Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $900M–$1B unchanged despite tax and promo headwinds.
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Surcharge in high-tax states and Jackpocket integration could materially impact margins.
Live Updates
Final Reactions
| Period | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Revenue Estimate | Revenue Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 25 | $0.41 | $0.38 ❌ | $1.43B | $1.513B ✅ |
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🟢 Sentiment: Positive — product strength, hold discipline, and EBITDA record drive upside
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🏈 Focus Ahead: NFL momentum, Jackpocket synergy, state expansion (e.g., Missouri)
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📆 Next Catalyst: H2 hold trends + new features during NFL launch
What Changed This Quarter
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All-time records for revenue, net income, and EBITDA
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ARPMUP surged to $151 (+29%) despite promo seasonality
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MUP growth slowed (+6%) but offset by Jackpocket and iGaming
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EPS miss due to higher-than-expected tech and stock comp expense
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FY guide held, but implied H2 strength is needed to hit high end
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6.5M shares repurchased YTD
Key Operating Highlights
Despite flattish user growth, DKNG delivered major monetization leverage. Sportsbook strength, product expansion, and hold gains continue to widen margins.
| Metric | Q2 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.513B | +37% |
| Adj. EPS | $0.38 | +73% |
| Net Income | $158M | +147% |
| Adj. EBITDA | $301M | +135% |
| MUPs | 3.3M | +6% |
| ARPMUP | $151 | +29% |
| Sportsbook Revenue | $998M | +45% |
| iGaming Revenue | $430M | +23% |
Guidance Outlook
Maintained FY25 revenue ($6.2B–$6.4B) and EBITDA ($800M–$900M) outlook
The modest EPS miss didn’t shake investor confidence. DKNG crushed the revenue print, set new all-time profitability records, and showcased a maturing business model with higher ARPMUP and disciplined marketing. With NFL season approaching and Jackpocket integration in flight, bulls have reason to stay longer.
| Metric | FY25 Outlook | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.2B–$6.4B | ⚖️ Maintained (trending high end) |
| Adj. EBITDA | $800M–$900M | ⚖️ Maintained (unchanged) |
DKNG Up After Earnings
Top-line strength was clear — DKNG posted record revenue, EBITDA, and net income — yet the stock cooled slightly on a modest EPS miss vs. high expectations. With NFL season approaching and ARPMUP up 29%, bulls are likely to remain focused on customer monetization rather than short-term margin volatility.
Guidance: Maintained FY25 revenue ($6.2B–$6.4B) and EBITDA ($800M–$900M) outlook.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $0.38 (Adj.) | $0.41 | ❌ Miss |
| Revenue | $1.513B | $1.43B | ✅ Beat |
DraftKings Shares Up Today
We’re about 90 minutes from DraftKings releasing their Q2 earnings, but it’s been a good market day for the company so far. DraftKings shares are 1.7%. That’s ahead of many other gaming and online betting stocks like Flutter, which is up .6% or PENN Entertainment which is down 1.35%.
DraftKings is also outpacing the broader Nasdaq, which is up 1.2% on the day.
How DraftKings Stock Performed After Past Earnings
DraftKings has crushed EPS estimates in each of the last four quarters, but post-earnings reactions have been volatile. Q3 and Q4 2024 saw big first-day pops, while Q2 2024 posted a sharp decline despite a beat.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | +200.0% | +7.30% | +2.04% | +1.50% |
| Q4 2024 | +262.5% | +10.85% | –6.65% | –15.16% |
| Q3 2024 | +244.4% | +10.85% | +10.85% | +11.98% |
| Q2 2024 | +100.0% | –10.40% | –11.41% | –0.68% |
DraftKings (Nasdaq: DKNG | DKNG Price Prediction) will report Q2 results after the close. Analysts expect revenue of $1.43 billion and EPS of $0.41, reflecting strong hold trends and improved customer efficiency. The company reiterated its full-year adjusted EBITDA target of $900 million to $1 billion despite absorbing Illinois tax increases and a promo-heavy Q1.
With the NFL season ramp approaching, investors are focused on margin execution, new product velocity, and the impact of Jackpocket cross-sell.
We’ll be updating this live blog with news and analysis right after DraftKing’s earnings hit the newswires. To receive updates, all you have to do is leave this page open, and updates will post automatically.
What to Expect
- Revenue: $1.43 billion
- EPS (Normalized): $0.41
- FY 2025 Revenue: $6.31 billion
- FY 2025 EPS: $1.36
These estimates imply 29.2% YoY revenue growth and 84.4% YoY EPS growth for the quarter.
Key Areas to Watch
Customer Acquisition Efficiency
DKNG reported an 80% YoY increase in new OSB and iGaming users in Q2, while customer acquisition costs dropped over 40% — all in a quarter with no new state launches. Management emphasized this dynamic may suggest an even larger TAM than previously modeled, especially ahead of the NFL season.
High-Tax State Surcharge Implementation
Starting Jan 2025, DKNG plans to implement a gaming tax surcharge in four states with >20% tax rates (including Illinois). While this will help defend contribution margins, CEO Jason Robins said the company is still absorbing part of the cost, and emphasized transparency with users.
Jackpocket Integration and Cross-Sell
The Jackpocket acquisition is expected to generate positive adjusted EBITDA in FY25, and integration into DKNG’s app is expected to enhance conversion and CAC efficiency. Robins confirmed plans to fully integrate Jackpocket and cross-sell between brands, though full timing is TBD.
EBITDA Bridge and Margin Leverage
Despite raising FY24 revenue guidance to $5.05B–$5.25B, DKNG lowered FY24 EBITDA guidance due to Illinois tax and higher new user promos. But management reiterated FY25 EBITDA guidance of $900M–$1B, saying performance from existing customers should more than offset headwinds.
Product Pipeline for NFL Season
New launches include progressive parlays, cash out for SGPs, and a bet-and-watch NFL experience. Robins described this as DKNG’s most robust product roadmap yet for NFL and noted several additional product upgrades would land in the next 6 weeks.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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