Stock Market Live August 12: Positive Inflation News Pushes S&P 500 (VOO) Higher

By Joel South Updated Aug 12, 4:05PM EDT · Published Aug 12, 9:12AM EDT

Key Points

Inflation for July came in milder than expected at 2.7%.
Core inflation ran hotter at 3.1%.

Live Updates

Tuesday Wrap-up

Aug 12, 2025 at 4:05 PM EDT

The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF closed at 590.16 Tuesday, up almost 1%.

Don't Shop Shopify

Aug 12, 2025 at 12:14 PM EDT

On the flip side, Phillip Securities analyst Helena Wang has downgraded Shopify (Nasdaq: SHOP | SHOP Price Prediction) stock to neutral with a $150 price target. Wang cited valuation, specifically a rally in the stock price, as tempering her enthusiasm for buying more — and warns the stock price “appears stretched at the current share price.”

Shopify stock is nonetheless up 0.6% today, while the Voo is still hanging onto its 0.8% gain.

Order Up for Starbucks, Too

Aug 12, 2025 at 11:44 AM EDT

And another restaurant upgrade today: S&P 500 component company Starbucks (Nasdaq: SBUX). Predicting “turnaround strategies under new leadership will be effective in transforming Starbucks into a better company,” Piper Sandler analyst David Tarantino upgraded the coffeehouse chain to Outperform with a $115 price target.

Starbucks stock is up 2%, and the Voo is marching higher again as well — now up 0.8%.

Order Up for Chipotle

Aug 12, 2025 at 9:46 AM EDT

Piper Sandler analyst Brian Mullan upgraded Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) to overweight with a $50 price target this morning. Predicting 3% same store sales growth over the next two years, the analyst sees the potential for about a 20% increase in share price as the stock recovers from its 31% decline year to date.

Chipotle stock is up 3.3% in early trading. The Voo’s gain has shrunk to 0.4%.

Economists were expecting US consumer prices (i.e. inflation) to rise 2.8% in July. Today, the official number came out, it was milder than expected… and the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSEMKT: VOO) is moving higher.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday that the consumer price index increased 2.7% in July, slightly better than expected, and helped by falling gas prices. “Core” inflation, which doesn’t count changes in the cost of food and energy, ran hotter, however, at 3.1%, versus a forecast for 3%. Long story short, we’re not out of the inflation woods yet, but because the headline number at least was better than expected, the “Voo” is up 0.5% premarket.

Will it last? Tune in two days from now, when BLS will report on the producer price index for a glimpse at where whole prices are trending. If that number looks mild, the chances of a Fed interest rate cut this year should increase, and the stock market will probably rejoice.

Earnings

Ad-seller PubMatic (Nasdaq: PUBM) reported $0.05 per share in Q2 profit last night, where Wall Street had expected a big $0.16 loss. Sales were also ahead of expectations at $71.1 million. PubMatic warned, however, that full year revenue will be no more than $66 million instead of the Street-predicted $70.8 million, and PubMatic shares are down more than 30% in premarket trading.

3-D printer-maker 3D Systems (NYSE: DDD) reported a $0.07 loss on Q2 sales of $94.8 million last night, missing on both top and bottom lines, but its stock is up a fraction of a percent premarket.

S&P 500 component company Cardinal Health (NYSE: CAH) reported its fiscal Q4 2025 results this morning. The medical products distributor beat earnings forecasts by a nickel, reporting $2.08 per share in profit. Sales, however, fell short of estimates at $60.2 billion, and Cardinal Health shares are down more than 7% permarket.

Stablecoin issuer and June IPO Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) reported a Q2 loss of $4.48 per share, on revenue of $658 million. The stock is up more than 12% permarket.

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About the Author Joel South →

Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.

He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.