Live: Will Snowflake (SNOW) Pop After Q2 Earnings Today?
Key Points
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Consensus expects Q2 revenue of ~$1.09B (+25% YoY) and EPS of $0.27 (+50% YoY).
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AI Data Cloud momentum: 5,200+ weekly AI accounts; Cortex becoming core to enterprise AI strategies.
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Shares have shown sharp post-earnings volatility, with moves as large as ±30% in the last year.
Live Updates
AI Updates
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6,100+ accounts using AI features weekly, up from ~5,200 in Q1.
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Cortex AI has moved from pilot-stage to “enterprise core,” with reference customers including Kraft Heinz, Siemens, and Samsung Ads embedding it into workflows.
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Management emphasized that AI inference costs are being offset, keeping gross margins stable at ~76%.
AI is beyond the experimental phase, costumers are using it.
My Take on the Quarter
Snowflake showed it can scale AI workloads profitably while maintaining growth above 30%, removing the biggest bear case.
Strong execution quarter, with AI adoption translating into real dollars.
- Bullish: Re-acceleration in consumption, RPO strength, and margin stability.
- Bearish: Slightly conservative FY26 revenue guide.
- Neutral: Net retention dip.
What Changed This Quarter
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Consumption growth outpaced expectations, especially in AI workloads.
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RPO acceleration (+33% YoY) highlights confidence in future growth.
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Margins stable at ~76% non-GAAP gross margin despite AI inference costs.
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Net revenue retention dipped slightly (125% vs. 128% prior), but still elite.
Key Operating Highlights
| KPI | Q2 FY26 | YoY | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net Rev. Retention | 125% | ↓ from 128% | Still best-in-class |
| $1M+ Customers | 654 | +30% | Large deal momentum intact |
| Forbes Global 2000 Cust. | 751 | +5% | Slower expansion but very sticky |
| RPO | $6.9B | +33% | Strong forward pipeline |
Stock Approaching 13% After-Hours
Guidance implies sustained mid-20s% growth into Q3. FY26 top-line guide is slightly conservative vs. Street, but the cash flow margin uplift offsets. Big reason the stock popped 12% after-hours.
| Metric | Guidance | Consensus | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 FY26 Product Rev. | $1.125B–$1.130B (+25–26% YoY) | ~$1.12B | 📈 Raised inline |
| FY26 Product Rev. | $4.395B (+27% YoY) | $4.53B est. | ⚖️ Flat to slightly below |
| FY26 Op. Margin (Non-GAAP) | 9% | 9% est. | ⚖️ Flat |
| FY26 Adj. FCF Margin | 25% | ~24% est. | 📈 Raised |
C-Suite Commentary
CEO Sridhar Ramaswamy:
“Snowflake delivered yet another strong quarter, with product revenue of $1.09 billion, up 32% year-over-year, and remaining performance obligations totaling $6.9 billion.”
Management is leaning heavily on momentum in AI adoption (over 6,100 weekly AI-active accounts), signaling that Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud is scaling beyond pilot projects into enterprise-wide workflows.
Guidance
Guidance (Q3 FY26)
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Product Revenue: $1.125B–$1.130B (+25–26% YoY)
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Operating Margin: 9% (non-GAAP)
Full-Year FY26 Outlook:
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Product Revenue: $4.395B (+27% YoY)
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Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 9%
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Adj. Free Cash Flow Margin: 25%
Snowflake delivered a clean beat on both top- and bottom-line metrics, easing fears around consumption pacing. Product revenue growth of +32% YoY and a non-GAAP EPS beat by 30% demonstrate that AI-driven workloads are scaling without pressuring margins. With RPO up 33% and guidance implying sustained mid-20s growth, management has convincingly reset the narrative after prior volatility.
This reaction (+12% AH) reflects relief that Snowflake is executing under new leadership while maintaining momentum in AI adoption.
Big Beat and Shares Spike
Shares are up 12% immediately after the release after-hours.
| Metric | Reported | Consensus | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.10B (+32% YoY) | $1.09B | ✅ Beat |
| EPS (Non-GAAP) | $0.35 | $0.27 | ✅ Beat |
| Product Revenue | $1.09B (+32% YoY) | $1.08B est. | ✅ Beat |
| RPO | $6.9B (+33% YoY) | N/A | — |
How Snowflake Performed After Recent Earnings
On average over the past year, SNOW stock jumped 7.77% after the first week of trading following an earnings release.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +14.3% | +13.43% | +17.33% | +16.46% |
| Q4 2025 | +66.7% | +4.51% | –4.38% | –7.12% |
| Q3 2025 | +33.3% | +32.71% | +33.53% | +33.18% |
| Q2 2025 | +12.5% | –14.70% | –15.42% | –17.07% |
Snowflake (NASDAQ: SNOW | SNOW Price Prediction) will report fiscal Q2 2026 earnings after the close. The stock has been a lightning rod for the AI data platform trade, swinging double-digits after recent earnings as investors debate whether Snowflake can sustain growth while scaling profitability. After posting $1.04 billion in Q1 revenue (+26% YoY) and raising full-year guidance, expectations remain high heading into tonight’s results.
What to Expect When Snowflake Reports Tonight
- Revenue: $1.09 billion
- EPS (Normalized): $0.27
- FY 2026 Revenue: $4.53 billion
- FY 2026 EPS: $1.11
- FY 2027 Revenue: $5.58 billion
- FY 2027 EPS: $1.58
That implies +25% YoY revenue growth this quarter, with EPS set to jump nearly 50% YoY.
Key Areas to Watch
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AI Data Cloud & Cortex Momentum- Over 5,200 accounts using AI weekly; Cortex has evolved from niche to enterprise core. Customers like Kraft Heinz, Siemens, and Samsung Ads are embedding Snowflake AI into critical workflows.
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Snowpark, Dynamic Tables & Data Engineering- Strong adoption across unstructured data, ML workloads, and pipelines. EVP Kleinerman highlighted Snowpark’s role in unlocking new analytics and AI applications.
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Government & Regulated Sector Expansion- Launch of Snowflake Public Sector, Inc. with DoD provisional authorization. Expect updates on federal pipeline and sovereign cloud opportunities.
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Bookings & Consumption Trends- Q1 saw two $100M+ renewals; CFO Scarpelli emphasized strong RPO growth (+34% YoY) and stable consumption despite macro uncertainty.
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Competitive Dynamics vs. Hyperscalers- Analysts pressed on Microsoft Fabric and Databricks competition; management positioned Snowflake as the neutral enterprise data backbone, increasingly coexisting with Azure
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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