Up Another 11%, Here’s Why Rigetti Computing Just Can’t Stop Winning

From Niche Tech to Meme Stock Madness

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ:RGTI) has become a quantum computing poster child, soaring from obscurity to a $10 billion valuation in mere years. As quantum tech inches closer to practical applications — things like drug discovery or unbreakable encryption — RGTI’s stock has caught fire. 

Over the past month, shares have more than doubled, climbing from below $15 to over $31 per share. This isn’t just about tech progress; it’s also meme stock mania. Retail traders, buzzing on X and Reddit, are chasing quantum’s “next AI” allure, echoing GameStop’s (NYSE:GME | GME Price Prediction) 2021 frenzy. 

Yesterday, RGTI stock jumped another 11% on no specific news, but an analyst at B. Riley had hiked his price target hike two days prior from $19 to $35 per share, helping to fuel the momentum. 

With quantum computing blending breakthrough potential and speculative fever, RGTI’s rise is a high-stakes bet on a future still in the lab. Can it sustain this orbit, or is gravity calling? 

Government Cash for Quantum Dreams

Rigetti’s string of wins keeps the hype alive. Earlier this month, a $5.8 million Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) contract paired RGTI with Dutch quantum networking pioneer QphoX, eyeing scalable systems akin to classical supercomputers. Another Air Force deal — a five-year qubit fabrication contract — ensures steady R&D funding. 

Internationally, a September memorandum of understanding with India’s C-DAC targets hybrid quantum systems, while $4.7 million in U.K. Innovate grants bolsters European efforts. DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative and a $5.48 million Air Force Office of Scientific Research grant further cement RGTI’s role in government-backed innovation. 

These contracts aren’t just cash — they’re credibility, signaling Rigetti’s tech is more than theoretical.

Qubits to Build the Future

Rigetti’s tech strides are no small feat. July saw the launch of the 36-qubit Cepheus-1-36Q, a multi-chip marvel with 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity. Now live on Rigetti’s Quantum Cloud Services and soon on Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) Azure, it’s a scalable step toward real-world applications like optimization or simulation. 

Last December’s 84-qubit Ankaa-3 hit similar fidelity marks, proving superconducting qubits are closing in on utility. A $35 million investment from Quanta Computer in April — part of a $200 million partnership — fuels this scaling. These aren’t just prototypes, but enterprise-ready foundations.

Wall Street’s Quantum Crush

Wall Street is also warming to RGTI. B. Riley’s price target hike to $35 per share cites execution and market potential. Benchmark ($20 per share), Needham ($18), and Craig-Hallum’s “Buy” reaffirm bullishness after its second-quarter results. 

With a $21.42 consensus target, though, RGTI at $31.46 per share (it’s up another 4% in premarket trading this morning) is outpacing forecasts, riding analyst optimism and quantum hype.

Unfortantely, RGTI’s finances don’t match the frenzy. Q2 revenue was $1.8 million, dwarfed by $20.4 million in expenses. A $42.6 million Q1 “profit” came from one-time non-cash gains, not sales. Commercial viability remains years away. 

RGTI stock’s $10 billion valuation is based on speculation, not fundamentals, with potential additional dilution looming after its June $350 million at-the-market (ATM) equity raise. Competitors like IonQ (NYSE:IONQ), with trapped-ion tech and $1.6 billion in pro forma cash, or D-Wave Quantum (NYSE:QBTS), rwith $18.1 million in year-to-date annealing revenue, boast stronger financials and arguably superior tech. RGTI’s rise is fueled by hope, not hard cash.

Key Takeaway

Rigetti’s quantum prowess is real, but its market valuation is untethered from reality, outstripping most analyst targets. Investors betting on RGTI as a quantum leader should temper expectations — dilution and competition loom. Yet, don’t short it. As John Maynard Keynes famously warned, “The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.” Mania could keep RGTI soaring before gravity hits.