Intel Bucks Market’s Tumble as Wall Street Warms to Chipmaker

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) shares climbed more than 3% yesterday even as broader markets plunged after Japan had a weaker than expected 20-year bond market sale. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped almost 900 points, marking its worst day since October. Combined with President Trump’s threats of tariffs on eight European countries opposing U.S. attempts to acquire Greenland, it was a prescription for market turmoil. 

However, with Intel set to release fourth-quarter earnings after the market close tomorrow, analysts have issued numerous upgrades for the stock, signaling improved confidence in the company’s outlook despite a challenging year.

Intel Defies the Downturn

Amid the global market turmoil, Intel shares bucked the trend to close at their highest level in two years. The momentum carried over to today, with Intel stock soaring 11% in morning trading, pushing it over $53 per share — its first time above that mark since 2021. This performance is notable in that the Dow is also rebounding today, rising more than 500 points and clawing back some of the $1.1 trillion in S&P 500 market capitalization that was erased during the market’s plunge.

The catalyst for the surge was a wave of analyst upgrades ahead of its earnings report that has been building over the past week. Wall Street’s growing optimism centers on Intel’s progress in artificial intelligence (AI)-driven segments and its foundry operations, offsetting broader market jitters.

Analysts Upgrade Outlook Ahead of Earnings

Several firms have revised their views on Intel in recent weeks. Yesterday, though, HSBC upgraded the stock from Reduce to Hold, lifting its price target from $26 to $50 per share, while HSBC Global Research followed with a similar shift from Moderate Sell to Hold. Previously, KeyCorp moved from Sector Weight to Overweight with a $60 target and Melius Research upgraded Intel to Buy before that, setting a $50 target, citing better visibility in Intel’s foundry and core segments.

Most upgrades have shifted ratings from Sell to Hold, reflecting expectations of solid Q4 results and sustained growth. However, the overall consensus remains Reduce, with 6 Sell ratings, 28 Hold, and 5 Buy ratings from 39 analysts. With the average price target of $40.68 per share, it indicates Intel’s surge may be overdone as it implies over 20% downside, but  the target price has risen from $34.84 a month ago.

For the fourth quarter, analysts are expecting Intel to report earnings of $0.08 per share, down 39% year-over-year, on revenue of $13.4 billion, a 6% decline. Although lower on the top and bottom line compared to the year-ago period, this follows Intel’s strong 2025, where its business was boosted by several major AI partnerships and support from the U.S. government. Intel’s stock notched an 84% gain for all of 2025, and 2026 is continuing the momentum, with shares up 46% over the first three weeks of the year.

Key Takeaway

Intel’s foundry business is gaining traction, with its 18A process achieving yields over 60% and positioning the company as the potential second-largest foundry behind Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM). Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is evaluating Intel for low-end M-series processors starting in 2027 and A-series iPhone chips around 2029. Server CPU capacity is also sold out for 2026, potentially driving average selling prices up 10% to 15% due to AI demand from hyperscalers.

Wall Street’s shift toward Intel signals validation of its turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, and investors should see this as a positive development. Considering the run-up Intel’s stock has enjoyed, I wouldn’t scoop up shares with both hands just yet, but establishing at least a small position makes sense considering the improved sentiment on Wall Street. So long as you acknowledge the presence of risks like production delays and competition, Intel stock is still a buy here.