Live Analysis: Will Lam Research Beat Q2 Earnings?
Quick Read
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Lam Research (LRCX) shares surged 218% over the past year. We’ll be updating this live blog with earnings analysis. All you have to do is simply leave this page and new updates should appear automatically. We expect Lam Research to report at about 4:05 p.m. ET.
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Wall Street expects the company to report revenue of $5.24 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.17.
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Looking ahead to next quarter (Fiscal Q3), Wall Street expects Lam Research to guide to revenue of $5.33 billion and $1.20 in adjusted EPS.
Live Updates
Lam Research Predicts 40% Advanced Packaging Growth in 2026
Lam Research’s conference call begin in a few minutes.
You can register to join here.
Overall, Lam Research is estimating the wafer fabrication equipment industry will grow from $110 billion to $135 billion in 2026.
In the company’s earnings presentation, they highlighted the growth of advanced packaging, which is expected to growth more than 40% in 2026.
Meta Predicts Capital Expenditures That Could Reach $135 Billion in 2026
The big news beyond Lam Research’s earnings is that Meta’s earnings release tonight forecasted capital expenditures between $115 billion to $135 billion in 2026.
That’s probably bigger news than Lam Research’s earnings, because it shows how much growth is still to come in 2026. That should be great news across the entire semiconductor equipment industry.
Guidance
Lam Research has guided to revenue of $5.70 billion next quarter with EPS of $1.35.
That’s a big beat on the EPS side. Wall Street expected $1.20.
Wall Street was also expecting $5.24 on the revenue side.
So, it’s very strong guidance but Lam Research is also priced for significant outperformance, so you’re not seeing shares react in a large way after hours.
Lam Research: Everything You Need to Know About Q1 Earnings
LRCX | Lam Research Corporation Q1’26 Earnings Highlights:
- Adj. EPS: $1.27 (Est. $1.16) [✅]; UP +1% YoY
- Revenue: $5.34B; UP +22% YoY
- Adj. Gross Margin: 49.7% (Est. 49.0%) [✅]; DOWN -90 bps YoY
- Net Income: $1.60B; UP +34% YoY
Q1’26 Outlook:
- Revenue: $5.70B ±$300 Million [✅]
- Guidance reflects continued demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
- Expectations are driven by the ongoing transition to smaller, more complex devices and packages.
Q1 Segment Performance:
- Systems Revenue: $3.36B; DOWN -5% YoY
- Customer Support-Related Revenue: $1.99B; UP +13% YoY
Other Key Q1 Metrics:
- Adj. Operating Income: $1.83B; DOWN -2% YoY
- Adj. Operating Expenses: $827M; DOWN -1% YoY
- R&D Expenses: $573M; UP +16% YoY
- Free Cash Flow: $1.48B; UP +99% YoY
- Effective Tax Rate: 13.2% (vs. 15.5% YoY)
- Cash Dividend Declared: $0.26 per share
CEO Commentary:
- Tim Archer: “Lam delivered another strong quarter to cap a record year. Entering 2026, our expanding product and services portfolio is enabling the market’s transition to smaller, more complex three-dimensional devices and packages. With AI accelerating, we are ramping execution velocity across the company to support our customers’ growth and realize our vision for multi-year outperformance.”
Shares Are Moving Higher - Up 2%
Lam Research shares are now up 2%, we’re digging into the earnings and will post more updates momentarily.
Lam Research Beats Expectations
Lam Research just delivered EPS of $1.27 versus expectations of $1.16.
Revenue of $5.34 also topped expectations.
Shares are initially up marginally.
Lam Research Earnings Expected at 4:05 p.m. ET
We expect Lam Research earnings to hit newswires at about 4:05 p.m. ET.
Once the company’s earnings are announced, we’ll begin updating this live blog with news and analysis.
Shares of Lam are up marginally in late trading.
Semiconductor Equipment Stocks Muted After ASML's Earnings
ASML was up big in premarket trading this morning, but shares have fallen throughout the trading day. As of 1:35 p.m. ET, ASML is down about 2.6%.
That might be an unexpected response since the company reported incredible bookings growth that far exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, but ASML shares have also been on a furious rally recently.
As Intel investors recently discovered, stocks that have seen huge recent gains heading into earnings can be punished harshly for any perceived weakness.
In Lam Research’s case, the stock is up 30% year-to-date and 218% across the past year. That means it will need excellent earnings tonight, both in terms of recent performance and management commentary looking at the future.
Recent developments in the memory space point to more capital expenditures, which is very positive for Lam Research. Wall Street will certainly be closely parsing any commentary on future demand as shares are now priced at historically high levels.
Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX | LRCX Price Prediction) reports Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings today after the bell at 4:05 PM ET, with the conference call following at 5:00 PM ET. After a strong run, shares are up 30% year-to-date and 218% over the past year—investors want to see if the semiconductor equipment maker can justify its momentum.
Strong Setup After Recent Upgrades
Multiple analysts raised price targets in the past week. Evercore ISI lifted its target to $241 from $170, Deutsche Bank went to $260, and Bank of America moved to $245. The stock surged 4.4% in premarket trading on Wednesday to $249, pushing well past its previous 52-week high of $239.50. Zacks upgraded LRCX to a #1 Rank ahead of the report, citing a shift from cyclical recovery to structural “content gain” in semiconductor manufacturing. Bullishness has been steadily on the rise as companies like Taiwan Semiconductor (NYSE: TSM)have announced increased capital expenditure plans in the years ahead. Just this morning, ASML reported bookings that blew away Wall Street expectations and cited strong demand from the memory space, which is good news for Lam Research.
That optimism reflects real business momentum. Last quarter, Lam posted revenue of $5.32 billion (up 28% year-over-year) with gross margins expanding to 50.4% and operating margins hitting 34.4%. The company has beaten consensus estimates in eight straight quarters, averaging a 6% surprise rate.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Q2 FY2026 Estimate | YoY Growth | FY2026 Full Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.24 billion | +20% | $21.45 billion |
| Adjusted EPS | $1.17 | – | $4.80 |
Areas to Watch Tonight
Margins tell the story here. Lam expanded gross margins from 47.4% in Q1 fiscal 2025 to 50.4% by Q4—a 300 basis point sequential improvement driven by better product mix and manufacturing efficiency. I’ll be watching whether the company can hold gross margins above 50% or if we see normalization pressure.
The guidance commentary matters more than the print. TSMC expanded capital expenditure plans, Micron is building a $24 billion Singapore fab, and customers are ramping Gate-All-Around transistors and HBM4 memory. Management needs to frame how much of this demand translates into sustainable equipment orders versus a short-term spike.
The geographic revenue mix will be important to watch. China exposure remains a wildcard given export control uncertainties, while strength in Taiwan and Korea would signal healthy foundry and memory demand. ASML said this morning that China sales are ‘stabilizing,’ which is a good omen for Lam Research.
One caution: insider selling picked up recently, with CFO Douglas Bettinger offloading over $6.25 million in shares, and options markets show elevated put volume. That suggests some sophisticated investors are hedging despite the bullish analyst calls.
The Real Test
Lam trades at 40x forward earnings (Fiscal 2027 estimates) with a PEG ratio near 2x—premium multiples that assume sustained growth. The company delivered a 62% return on equity last year with operating margins above 34%, so the operational excellence is real. But at these valuations, execution has to be flawless. Investors are betting that the current AI supercycle will be different than past cycles that ended with brutal corrections.
If management sounds cautious on March quarter guidance or flags any demand softness, you’ll see profit-taking fast. This quarter is about proving the AI-driven equipment cycle has staying power beyond the hype.
Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.
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