Live: Will SanDisk’s Epic Rally Continue After Q2 Earnings Tonight?
Quick Read
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SanDisk (SNDK) shares surged 985% over the past year after beating earnings three consecutive quarters. We expect the company’s earnings to hit newswires at 4:05 p.m. ET, and the moment they do we’ll begin updating this live blog with news and analysis. To receive updates, simply stay on this page and they’ll appear automatically below.
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Consensus expects SanDisk Q4 EPS of $3.54, a massive acceleration from the company’s $1.22 in earnings last quarter.
Live Updates
SanDisk Gives An Update on Massive NAND Demand During Tonight's Conference Call
Here’s what SanDisk CEO David Goeckeler had to say about NAND demand on tonight’s conference call:
“Let me frame the NAND industry’s evolution before discussing our end markets. NAND is now recognized as indispensable to the world’s storage needs, driving a foundational shift in how commercial relationships between suppliers and customers are structured. Supply certainty, longer planning horizons and multiyear commitments are increasingly essential to support structural demand that extends beyond the traditional cyclical model of our market.
As a result, we are engaged in discussions with customers to evolve from quarterly negotiations towards multiyear agreements with firmer commitments on supply and pricing, enabling better planning practices and more attractive returns. These changes would better align our planning cycles with customers’ demand profiles to our mutual benefit. Accordingly, our supply plans will continue to be designed around predictable long-term demand at current and forecasted market prices.
These dynamics reveal the true value of our NAND technology and reinforce the need for continued innovation and disciplined execution. Our products are enabled by decades of sustained investment in R&D and innovation across NAND and system solutions, supported by substantial capital investments in world-class front-end and back-end manufacturing. As a result, we believe NAND is becoming a more durable, structurally attractive industry with higher average returns.”
Gains Are Fading
SanDisk is still soaring after hours, but its gains are fading. The stock is currently up 10%.
The compay proclaimed that the ‘cyclical patttern’ of memory is now broken. That’s a bold claim, but we may be in a supercycle unlike anything ever seen.
The company’s conference call has started and we’ll post some of the most important quotes from it.
SanDisk Just Reported Q2 Earnings: THey get an A+ Grade
Overall Grade: A+
SanDisk delivered one of the most impressive earnings reports in recent tech history, crushing estimates across every major metric while issuing guidance that suggests the NAND pricing supercycle has months left to run.
| Category | Grade | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue Performance | A+ | $3.03B revenue (+61% YoY) beat $2.69B estimate by 12% |
| Earnings Beat/Miss | A+ | $6.20 EPS crushed $3.54 estimate by 75%, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly beat |
| Guidance Quality | A+ | Q3 midpoint of $4.6B demolishes $2.9B consensus – validates sustained pricing power |
| Margin Trends | A | Gross margin hit 51.1% (up 18.6 bps YoY); operating income surged 386% |
| Cash Flow | A+ | Free cash flow exploded to $980M (up 1,000% YoY) |
| Management Confidence | A | CEO highlighted “agility in capitalizing on better product mix” and AI-driven demand |
Apple Just Reported - Results Are Good But Margins Are in Focus
Apple just announced earnings and is waiting for their conference call to give guidance on margins. That’s likely because they want to talk about pricing power for categories like memory and storage.
SanDisk Has a History of Beating Earnings
SanDisk’s management has built a credible track record of exceeding expectations over the past year, making tonight’s 75% EPS beat less surprising. The company delivered three consecutive quarterly beats leading into Q2 FY2026, each surpassing analyst estimates by progressively larger margins.
The most notable performance came in Q4 FY2025, when SanDisk reported $0.29 per share against a consensus of $0.03 — an 867% beat. Q1 FY2026 showed a 37% beat, with actual EPS of $1.22 versus estimates of $0.89. This pattern suggests management has consistently operated with conservative guidance.
Tonight’s $6.20 EPS print against a $3.54 estimate continues this trend. The company’s improving execution across datacenter, edge, and consumer segments validates these aren’t accounting anomalies — they’re operational wins driven by the NAND shortage and AI demand tailwinds that analysts have struggled to properly model.
Guidance
SanDisk’s guidance points to $4.6 billion in revenue at the midpoint.
Wall Street was expecting $2.9 billion.
That is stunning and shows just how much pricing on memory products is skyrocketing.
Summarizing SanDisk's Earnings
SanDisk crushed expectations with earnings per share of $6.20 versus the consensus estimate of $3.54 — a stunning 75% beat. Revenue hit $3.025 billion, exceeding the $2.69 billion forecast by 12%.
| Metric | Expected | Actual | Beat/Miss | % Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.54 | $6.20 | Beat | +75% |
| Revenue | $2.69B | $3.03B | Beat | +12% |
The stock dropped sharply in the first minutes after the release — falling from $544 to as low as $530 in heavy after-hours volume before stabilizing near $537. They’re trading for $615 per share.
CNBC Can't Believe SanDisk's Earnings
CNBC just went to SanDisk’s earnings and couldn’t believe how good they are, saying they needed to triple check them.
Shares are up 15% as of 4:15 ET.
SanDisk's Q2 Earnings: All The Key Figures You Need to Know
SNDK | Sandisk Q2’26 Earnings Highlights:
- Adj. EPS: $6.20 (Est. $3.54) [✅]; UP +404% YoY
- Revenue: $3.03B; UP +61% YoY
- Adj. Gross Margin: 51.1% (Est. 50.9%) [✅]; UP +18.6 bps YoY
- Net Income: $803M; UP +672% YoY
Q2’26 Outlook:
- Revenue: $4.40B to $4.80B
- Expectations are driven by strong demand in AI infrastructure and enterprise SSD deployments.
- Guidance reflects anticipated growth in datacenter and consumer segments.
Q2 Segment Performance:
- Datacenter Revenue: $440M; UP +76% YoY
- Edge Revenue: $1.68B; UP +63% YoY
- Consumer Revenue: $907M; UP +52% YoY
Other Key Q2 Metrics:
- Adj. Operating Income: $1.13B; UP +386% YoY
- Adj. Operating Expenses: $413M; UP +10% YoY
- Free Cash Flow: $980M; UP +1,000% YoY
- Effective Tax Rate: 14.3% (vs. 39.9% YoY)
- Cash and Cash Equivalents: $1.54B
- Inventories: $1.97B
CEO Commentary:
- David Goeckeler: “This quarter’s performance underscores our agility in capitalizing on better product mix, accelerating enterprise SSD deployments, and strengthening market demand dynamics, all at a time when the critical role that our products play in powering AI and the world’s technology is being recognized.”
Shares Are Going Ballistic
It’s a massive earnings blowout and shares are immediately up 10%. The NAND party is in full-swing.
SanDisk Earnings Are Out
Here’s the key numbers:
- EPS: $6.20 (!!!)
- Revenue: $3.025 billion
As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street Expected
| Metric | Current Quarter (Q2 FY2026) | YoY Growth | Full Year (FY2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.54 | N/M | $14.33 |
| Revenue | $2.69 billion | 43% | $13.53 billion |
SanDisk Earnings Expected at About 4:05 p.m. ET
We’re just minutes away from SanDisk’s report. This will surely be their most anticipated quarterly earnings since the company was spun off last year. We expect SanDisk’s earnings to cross newswires at 4:05 p.m. ET.
To follow along with this live blog, leave this page open and new updates and analysis will post automatically.
SanDisk is the #1 Performer in the S&P 500
How good has SanDisk’s rally been? The company was the top performer in the entire S&P 500 in 2025, and is once again the top performer so far in 2026.
As of 3:10 p.m. ET, shares are up 3.2% today despite a broad tech sell-off.
SanDisk (NASDAQ: SNDK | SNDK Price Prediction) reports fiscal Q2 2026 results today after the bell. After three consecutive earnings beats and a 985% stock surge over the past year, this report will test whether the AI memory boom can sustain the company’s parabolic momentum.
Riding a Three-Quarter Beat Streak
SanDisk has beaten estimates in each of the past three quarters. Fiscal Q1 delivered $1.22 EPS versus $0.89 expected, a 37% beat. The company’s Fiscal Q4 earnings in June were even more dramatic, posting $0.29 against a $0.03 estimate. At the start of calendar 2025, the company was still losing money. That’s hard to imagine today!
Since that low point, margins have recovered sharply. Gross margin expanded from 22.5% at the start of 2025 to 29.8% last quarter. Operating margin was a healthy 7.6% last quarter. Revenue climbed sequentially from $1.9 billion to $2.3 billion.
The stock has responded accordingly. Shares are up 122% year to date and 116% over the past month alone, trading at $527.63 as of Tuesday’s close.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric | Current Quarter (Q2 FY2026) | YoY Growth | Full Year (FY2026) |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | $3.54 | N/M | $14.33 |
| Revenue | $2.69 billion | 43% | $13.53 billion |
The $3.54 EPS estimate represents a massive sequential jump from last quarter’s $1.22, which demonstrates how parabolic memory prices have gone in recent months.
AI Memory Shortage Driving Expectations
The bull case centers on supply constraints. Analyst projections suggest a severe NAND shortage lasting through 2027, driven by AI infrastructure demand. Some analysts have suggested SanDisk’s March quarter EPS could reach $10 to $12, far exceeding current market expectations. Expectations for March are currently at $4.33 in EPS. Given its recent run, SanDisk will almost certainly have to guide past that figure by a healthy margin if shares are going to continue rallying tomorrow.
Recent analyst upgrades have raised price targets significantly, citing controlled capacity expansion that avoids past oversupply cycles. Market commentary has noted that SanDisk faces “a shortage that can’t be met.”
I’ll be watching management’s commentary on supply visibility and pricing power. If they can articulate sustained demand through 2027 with disciplined capacity additions, the stock’s valuation multiple (currently 41x forward earnings) starts to look reasonable if you’re a believer in a long AI-driven memory supercycle.
Investors will be watching gross margin trajectory. The 29.8% posted last quarter is expected to rise to 43%. Expectations for next quarter’s gross margins rise once again to 47.6%. These are extremely bullish times for stocks in the memory space.
Valuation Risk After Parabolic Gains
The market is pricing in perfection. Options activity shows 58.79% calls versus 41.21% puts, with open interest 128% above the 30-day average. Short interest remains elevated despite the rally, creating potential for amplified volatility in either direction.
Some market observers have advised taking profits after the 935% run since February 2025, noting SanDisk may not receive the same reception as other tech leaders despite positive results. Any guidance miss or cautious tone on 2026 demand could trigger sharp selling.
This earnings report will determine whether SanDisk’s recovery story has staying power or whether the stock has run too far ahead of fundamentals. With analysts projecting a shortage lasting years, SanDisk suddenly is one of the most-watched stocks in the market.
Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.
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