Live: AXT Inc.(AXTI) Reports Earnings Tonight After 1,000% Rally

It’s simple, AXT shares are up 1,000% across the past year, so investors were likely expecting a bigger guide. Instead, what they got was roughly inline with consensus. So, the stock is now selling off.

That doesn’t mean AXT is a bad stock, but it does mean investors will likely have to wait for the next major catalyst that could move shares.

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AXT just delivered Q1 guidance, here’s what they said:

“As of today, we have approximately $26 million in revenue that can be realized in Q1 across our substrate product lines and raw materials, for which we either have already have a permit to ship or for which an export permit is not required. We have a high degree of confidence in recognizing this revenue in Q1.

We could see significant upside to this number in Q1, should we receive more permits for additional orders between now and the end of the quarter. But we want to stress that as we experienced in Q4, the timing for permit issuance is not predictable nor in our control and doesn’t necessarily align with our quarterly reporting.”

“With regards to OpEx, we expect that it will remain at approximately $9.0 million in Q1. With these factors in mind, we believe our non-GAAP net loss will be in the range of $0.02 to $0.04 and GAAP net loss will be in the range of $0.04 to $0.06. This represents substantial year-over-year progress towards our return to profitability. We estimate share count in Q1 will be approximately 53.2 million shares. Okay. This concludes our prepared comments. We’d be glad to answer your questions now. Audra? Operator?”

Wall Street had expected a $.05 loss and $26.75 million in sales next quarter. 

Here’s from AXP’s call on their expansion plans:

“Given the strong demand environment, it is important to note that AXT is well positioned to handle increased demand for indium phosphide wafers. Since we have last reported to you in October, we have already added approximately 25% more capacity, and we are on track with our current plan to double our capacity from Q4 2025 level by the end of this year.

Beyond our current plan for capacity expansion, we’re working closely with our customer base to understand their long-term requirements and to align our plans globally. Our recent capital raise will be fundamental to our future expansion as we enter our next significant phase of growth. A major focus of this expansion will be an increased investment in our 6-inch in phosphide product, and we are excited to work with our customers to meet the rigorous requirements of next-generation and colocation space devices. “

Here’s what AXP had to say on their conference call about their backlog and demand for InP:

“We’re also very pleased to note that we are seeing a work expansion of our customer base for indium phosphide. We’re beginning to support leading customers in the optical space that we have not — we have limited exposure to prior to this time. This includes Tier 1 laser manufacturers and optical transceiver module makers, both in China and around the world.

We’re excited to be able to demonstrate the technological advantage of our low EPD wafers as the market moves to optical devices with higher speed and greater sophistication for both scale-up and scale-out applications. In total, our backlog for indium phosphide wafers have reached a new high of over $60 million. As we mentioned last quarter, customers are planning for longer lead time by placing longer-term motors and giving us more visibility into their expected demand. As many of you know, the supply chain for optical transceiver is quite complex and highly globalized. We believe this geographical interdependence is providing both opportunity and incentives for the ecosystem to work together in new ways to solve global supply chain shortages.

Beyond pluggable receivers, we are seeing a very large developing market for co-packaged optics for both scale-up and scale-out applications. We’re actively engaging in discussions with our customers about their technical and timing requirements and believe this could be — represent yet other inflection point in our business developing in late 2027 and beyond. “

We’re on AXT’s call, listening in. Shares are currently up .5%, a little more than flat.

So far, nothing material has been said. We’ll update this blog if anything happens that moves shares.

AXT provided no numerical guidance for Q1 2026 or full-year 2026 in tonight’s release, maintaining the qualitative-only approach management took after Q3. CEO Morris Young focused his forward commentary on export permit momentum and capacity expansion, stating the company has “received some permits to date in 2026” and expects “sequential revenue growth in Q1, driven primarily by growth in indium phosphide.”

The lack of specific targets stands out after the stock’s 936% one-year rally. Management reiterated plans to “double indium phosphide manufacturing capacity this year” and highlighted expanding relationships with “Tier-1 companies to which we have previously had limited exposure.” But without EPS or revenue targets, investors are left parsing directional language rather than concrete milestones—a cautious stance given the export permit uncertainty that caused tonight’s Q4 miss.

We’ll see if there are more specifics given on the company’s call, which is just now beginning.

Here’s what AXT’s management had to say about their revenue shortfall:

““While we are disappointed that we didn’t receive as many export permits in Q4 as we had hoped, we are pleased to report that we have received some permits to date in 2026 and believe we are in a strong position to achieve sequential revenue growth in Q1, driven primarily by growth in indium phosphide for the AI infrastructure build-out,” said Morris Young, chief executive officer. “As we enter 2026 as a foundational supplier to this multi-year growth cycle, we are notably broadening our customer base to include Tier-1 companies to which we have previously had limited exposure. We are also on track to double our indium phosphide manufacturing capacity this year and have a strong balance sheet to support our continued business expansion.””

As we covered in our preview, the company said they had $20 million solidly booked but incremental revenue would depend on export licenses.

It appears the conference call for AXT will be most important in shaping where the stock heads tomorrow. That call begins in 5 minutes and we will post updates if the stock moves during it. 

AXT’s earnings just hit newswires. Here are the most important numbers:

• Revenue: $23 million
• EPS: -$.08

As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street was expecting:

• Revenues: $24.24 million
• EPS: -$.06
• Gross Margin: 23%

Shares are initially off about 3% on the miss. However, commentary about future demand will loom large.

We expect AXT earnings to hit newswires at about 4:05 p.m. ET. If you see movement before then, it could just be noise. As a reminder, we’ll begin posting news and analysis once earnings are released.

Simply stay on this page and new updates will post automatically. 

Shares of AXT traded for around $24.50 midday, but have lost some momentum in afternoon trading. Shares are currently up about 1.6% today headed into earnings.