XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has been stuck in the same fight for weeks, climbing toward $1.45 and then retracing right after as sellers keep showing up beyond that price mark. Most investors watching the chart have started treating that level as the wall standing between XRP and a recovery, but $1.45 is only a preview of what’s waiting two levels above it.
The real resistance levels stand between $1.76 and $1.80. Glassnode’s cost basis data reveals that around 1.85 billion XRP, roughly $2.83 billion worth, was bought between $1.76 and $1.80—reflecting that a lot of sellers are above the $1.45 level and they would keep selling into small rallies, preventing XRP from going higher.
So, what would it take for XRP to finally clear $1.45 and then break past the key $1.76 resistance?
What’s Sitting at $1.76 and Why the XRP Price Can’t Get Past It
Around 1.85 billion XRP was bought between $1.76 and $1.80, which is nearly 3% of the entire circulating supply concentrated at a price mark. The holders who bought at that level got in around January and have been sitting on losses ever since.
After months of watching the price move further away from their entry, most of them are going to sell the moment they can get back to breakeven rather than hold for more upside. This is what makes $1.76 such a heavy resistance level, and it’s not the only one.
Glassnode also reported on March 8 that about 36.8 billion XRP, roughly 60% of what’s in circulation, is held below its average cost basis of $1.44, with unrealized losses adding up to around $50.8 billion. This shows a lot of XRP holders who bought at higher levels are underwater at the moment, and they would keep selling into rallies to recover their losses, keeping the XRP price stuck below the key $1.45 resistance level.
What the XRP Price Has to Clear Before $1.76
XRP is trading around $1.37 to $1.40, and it doesn’t have to go far before hitting its first wall. The average cost basis across all XRP holders sits at roughly $1.44, which means the typical person still holding can almost break even at that price. Every time XRP has pushed toward $1.45 in March, sellers have met it there and knocked it back down, because holders who’ve been underwater for weeks or months aren’t going to watch the price touch their entry and not take the exit.
If XRP manages to absorb that selling and hold above $1.45, $1.55 is the next test. That’s the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the January decline, and a daily close above it would be the first higher high XRP has printed since the selloff started—and the first real sign that the downtrend is easing.
Above $1.55, there’s the 50-day EMA sitting around $1.64, which lines up with the upper boundary of the descending channel that has capped every rally since February. Breaking the $1.64 resistance on real volume would mean the trend itself is changing, confirming the start of an uptrend.
Between $1.64 and $1.76, the cost basis heatmap actually thins out. There are no major clusters of trapped holders in that corridor, which means once XRP gets through $1.64, the run toward $1.76 could come together quickly as there’s less overhead supply to fight through.
The challenge is that XRP at $1.37 is currently sitting below all four of its major exponential moving averages—the 20-day at $1.46, the 50-day at $1.64, the 100-day at $1.85, and the 200-day at $2.08. When all four EMAs are stacked above the price like that, it means the trend is pressing down on every attempt to rally, and flipping even the first one takes sustained buying that hasn’t shown up yet.
Where the XRP Price Goes If $1.76 Breaks — and What Happens If It Doesn’t
For XRP to reach $1.76, it first has to get past $1.45, then clear $1.55 to confirm a higher high, and then break $1.64 to flip the trend. The triggers that could push it through all three resistance levels include Bitcoin reaching $75,000 to $80,000—which would ignite an altcoin rally—and the CLARITY Act passing, classifying XRP as a digital commodity and opening the door to institutional capital.
Even then, breaking $1.76 itself requires enough sustained buying to absorb $2.83 billion in overhead supply from holders who have been waiting months to sell at breakeven. ETF inflows would need to reverse from the current outflow trend and get back to at least $250 million per month consistently—close to where they were in late 2025—to generate that kind of pressure over the coming months.
If that happens and $1.76 breaks on volume, the next resistance sits at the 100-day EMA around $1.85, then $2.00, and then the 200-day EMA at roughly $2.08. XRP hasn’t traded above the 200-day EMA since January, and getting back above it is where the market would start treating the move as a real recovery rather than another rally that rolls over.
If $1.76 holds, XRP could fall back through the same levels it fought to clear on the way up. The $1.64, $1.55, and $1.45 levels could all flip back into resistance, and the XRP price might settle into the $1.35 to $1.40 range, where new accumulation is already forming.
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