The XRP price has been rejected at $1.35 three times since late March, with the crypto dropping back toward $1.28 each time. It has now broken through and is trading near $1.38 after ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran improved the sentiment across the crypto market, with XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) posting its strongest daily move in weeks.
XRP breaking above $1.35 is one thing, but maintaining the momentum and getting back to $2 is a completely different conversation. XRP spiked to $2.40 in early January and hasn’t been anywhere close to $2 ever since. So what needs to happen for the XRP price to convincingly move above $2 again?
What Pushed XRP Back Above $1.35?
XRP tried to break above $1.35 three times since March and failed each time because the war and rising oil prices kept overriding the entire market. But a change in the war has flipped the market sentiment, with Bitcoin surging past $71,000, Ethereum jumping 6% to $2,255, and XRP climbing above $1.35—its highest level in over two weeks.
Trump agreed to suspend the bombing of Iran for two weeks after Pakistan stepped in, on the condition that Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz immediately. Iran’s foreign minister welcomed the agreement, and WTI crude oil has dropped from around $113 to below $95 per barrel. Traders who had been shorting crypto for weeks got squeezed, with $196.7 million in short positions liquidated across crypto as the market bounced back.
The XRP price has now spiked 5% to $1.38 as the two-week ceasefire window gives the market room to run. And with oil prices dropping for the first time in over a month, XRP can finally start reacting to its improving fundamentals and Ripple’s advancements.
Can the Current Momentum Push XRP to $2?
There are five key resistance levels between XRP’s current price of $1.35 and the $2 target. The first resistance is the 50-day EMA around $1.40. Above that is $1.45, where around 60% of XRP’s circulating supply was bought. It is one of XRP’s most critical resistance levels, as most holders who bought there will sell to break even the moment the price gets back to that level.
If XRP can get past $1.45, the next level is $1.60. XRP spiked to $1.60 on March 17 when the SEC classified it as a commodity, but the selling pressure from underwater holders immediately pushed it back down. The $1.60 has rejected XRP twice since it plunged from the early January run to $2.40, and breaking it would mean the price is finally moving past the range it has been trapped in since the war started.
After $1.60, the 200-day EMA is near $1.90. XRP hasn’t traded above that price since late February, and getting back there would mean recovering almost everything the war has erased. If XRP manages to scale above $1.90, the psychological $2 would be the last hurdle to climb. XRP has not traded above $2 since January and if it manages to break through, it would mark the start of a strong rally to higher price levels.
| Price | Resistance | Breakout Signal |
| $1.40 | 50-day EMA which XRP has not closed above since March | Confirms the $1.35 breakout is holding |
| $1.45 | 60% of supply bought here with heavy selling pressure | Clears the biggest wall of sellers |
| $1.60 | Rejected twice in March | Escapes the range the war trapped XRP in |
| $1.90 | 200-day EMA, where XRP has not traded above since late February | Recovers almost all the gains the war erased |
| $2.00 | Psychological barrier that would mark a rally turning point | The sell-off from $2.40 is over |
The current ceasefire will only last for a two-week pause, so it’s not a confirmation that the war is ending. If the Strait of Hormuz actually reopens and oil prices drop back toward pre-war levels, the selling pressure on the entire crypto market will lift, and XRP can start pushing through $1.45, $1.60, and beyond.
Where Can XRP Realistically Reach in April?
If the ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz reopens over the next two weeks, XRP can push through the $1.45 resistance and test $1.60. If the CLARITY Act also clears the Banking Committee in late April, which the Senate is targeting after it returns on April 13, then XRP would clear $1.60 and $1.80, as institutional capital would flow back into ETFs.
XRP rallying above $2 in April would need the ceasefire to turn into a permanent deal, the CLARITY Act to advance, and the Fed to deliver a dovish signal in the FOMC meeting on April 28-29. But if the ceasefire ends without a resolution to the war, XRP could fall back below $1.35 to retest the $1.28-$1.30 range it was stuck in before.
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