The S&P 500 Is Down 2.5% But These 3 Bitcoin ETFs Didn’t Get the Memo

While the S&P 500 has dropped roughly 2.5% over the past month and the VIX has surged 53% in a single month to signal elevated market stress, Bitcoin has quietly moved in the opposite direction. That divergence is reflected in the recent performance of these three ETFs.

All three Bitcoin ETFs posted gains over the past month, with iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ:IBIT | IBIT Price Prediction) up 5.43% and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (NYSEARCA:BITB) up 5.4%, nearly identical results given both hold actual Bitcoin directly. The underlying driver is simple: Bitcoin itself rose 7% over the same period.

ProShares Bitcoin ETF (NYSEARCA:BITO), which uses futures contracts rather than spot Bitcoin, captured most of that move with a 5.08% gain, though its structural costs kept it slightly behind the spot funds. All three outpaced the S&P 500 by a wide margin, with Bitcoin trading near $70,800 as of this morning.

IBIT and BITB are spot ETFs, meaning they hold actual Bitcoin. Their performance tracks the coin almost directly. BITO works differently: it holds CME Bitcoin futures contracts rather than Bitcoin itself, which introduces a structural cost called “roll drag” each time contracts expire and must be renewed. That’s why BITO’s one-month gain trailed the spot ETFs slightly, and it also explains why BITO has returned -12.67% since its October 2021 launch even as Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory has been sharply higher.

Why Bitcoin Is Holding Up While Equities Sell Off

Capital rotation during equity stress is the key macro dynamic here. The VIX, which measures expected stock market volatility, hit 29.49 on March 6 before settling at 27.29 as of March 12. That level sits at the 93rd percentile of readings over the past year, reflecting real fear in equity markets. Yet Bitcoin hasn’t followed stocks lower. That’s a meaningful signal about how some investors are treating crypto right now: less as a risk asset moving in lockstep with equities, and more as an alternative store of value during periods of equity-specific stress.

The specific data release to monitor is the monthly jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, published the first Friday of each month, along with Federal Reserve FOMC statements. If the Fed signals rate cuts in response to economic softening, that has historically been a tailwind for Bitcoin. Looser monetary conditions tend to increase appetite for scarce, non-sovereign assets. Conversely, if inflation re-accelerates and forces the Fed to hold rates higher for longer, Bitcoin’s recent momentum could stall.

The Structural Gap Between Spot and Futures

IBIT has become the dominant vehicle in the space, holding $50 billion in assets — a scale that reflects institutional adoption since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched. Its 0.25% expense ratio is competitive. BITB undercuts it slightly at 0.20%, though its smaller $2.6 billion asset base means thinner liquidity for large trades.

BITO is the outlier on cost: its 0.95% fee is significantly higher than the spot funds, and that gap compounds over time because futures roll drag adds an additional structural cost on top of the headline expense ratio.

BITO does generate income through its futures structure, with a dividend yield near 0.95%. That distribution yield is separate from, and does not offset, the annual expense ratio, which may appeal to income-focused investors. Historically, roll costs have contributed to a performance gap between futures-based and spot-based Bitcoin ETFs over longer time horizons. BITO’s monthly distribution history is available on the ProShares website for anyone tracking whether that yield is holding.

If the VIX retreats toward its 12-month average near 19 and equities stabilize, the rotation dynamic currently benefiting Bitcoin ETFs may fade. If equity stress persists, the gap between IBIT and the S&P 500 could widen further.