Murphy Oil Has Surged 48% in a Year — Can It Hold Above Wells Fargo’s $38 Price Target?

Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR | MUR Price Prediction) has been one of the more compelling energy stories of 2026. Shares are up 29% year-to-date, have gained nearly 48% over the past year and added 10% in just the last week. The stock hit a new a 52-week high of $41.92 on Thursday, March 26.

Most analysts maintain a cautious stance, with a Street consensus target of roughly $35.53 and a Hold rating dominating coverage. Wells Fargo recently raised its price target to $38 from $32, keeping an Equal Weight rating, citing Vietnam offshore modeling refinements and improving execution visibility. That target sits below where the stock trades today.

Can MUR realistically sustain and build on its current level through end of 2026?

Wells Fargo’s $38 MUR Prediction

Wells Fargo’s revised thesis centers on Vietnam production sharing contract modeling refined through recent webinar insights, reinforcing long-term offshore value even as the firm acknowledges the opportunity remains long dated and valuation stays anchored to near-term cash flow. The firm’s conviction rests on two developments: the successful Hai Su Vang-2X appraisal well, which encountered 429 feet of net oil pay with an approximately 12,000 BOPD combined flow rate, and Lac Da Vang first oil targeted for Q4 2026. Together, these milestones convert Vietnam from a speculative asset into a visible growth engine.

Key Drivers of MUR Stock Performance

1. Vietnam Offshore Maturation: Murphy’s Vietnam business is expected to produce 30 to 50 net MBOEPD in the early 2030s, with two additional Hai Su Vang appraisal wells (HSV-3X and HSV-4X) planned for 2026. This profile positions Vietnam as a long-duration compounding asset that grows in value as appraisal risk decreases.
2. Capital Returns and Dividend Growth: Murphy raised its quarterly dividend 8% to $0.35 per share and carries $550 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization. A dividend yield of approximately 3.37% provides income while buybacks reduce share count over time.
3. Operational Efficiency Gains: Lease operating expense per BOE fell 20% year over year to $10.89, and Eagle Ford Shale drilling costs declined 7% year over year. Sustained cost discipline amplifies cash flow conversion at any given oil price, protecting long-term portfolio value.

What Will It Take for MUR to Reach $38?

With 142.83 million shares outstanding and a current market cap of approximately $5.71 billion, the stock has already traded through the Wells Fargo target. Sustaining or extending these levels requires: continued execution at Lac Da Vang toward Q4 2026 first oil; WTI crude holding above its February 2026 level of $64.51 per barrel; and positive results from the planned HSV-3X and HSV-4X appraisal wells that would further de-risk the resource estimate.

The primary risk is a production step-down, with 2026 guidance set at 167,000 to 175,000 BOEPD due to lower Tupper Montney natural gas volumes, which could pressure near-term cash flow if oil prices soften. With Vietnam execution accelerating and a disciplined capital return program in place, Murphy Oil combines current income with long-dated offshore growth optionality, a profile that distinguishes it from many mid-cap E&Ps.