XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) just put together its best week of 2026. The XRP price climbed roughly 10%—outperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum—and briefly pushed above $1.50 before settling back to around $1.44.
Now the chart is finally catching up to the move as the daily MACD has flipped bullish. This is the first clean crossover XRP has printed since January, after three straight months of sell signals. So the question now is whether this signal holds, or if the rally will fade the same way it did after January’s surge to $2.40.
Why XRP’s Bullish MACD Crossover Is the First Clean Signal Since January
The MACD is a momentum indicator that tracks whether buying or selling pressure is winning. When the MACD line crosses above its signal line, buyers are in control and traders read it as a sign the trend is turning higher. On XRP’s daily chart, the MACD line has stayed below the signal line for most of 2026, and every attempt to flip it back has failed.
However, this one has held. The crossover appeared, and the signal has stayed intact even as XRP pulled back from $1.50—and that’s not something XRP has managed all year.
The last time it held, XRP had its biggest move in months. The MACD flipped bullish in early January, and the token rallied 25% in a week, peaking at $2.40 on January 7. That’s the biggest rally XRP has had all year, and it started with the same signal that just appeared again.
But the move didn’t last as XRP gave back most of those gains and spent the next two months grinding down to a $1.28-$1.30 low. The lesson from January is that the MACD flip can start a rally, but the rally itself needs catalysts to keep going, hence why the January move didn’t last long..
What Makes This XRP Rally Different From January’s Fake-Out
In January, XRP rallied mostly because Bitcoin did. BTC was climbing on the back of a strong ETF demand early in the year, and the broader crypto market ran with it—XRP included. When Bitcoin’s rally stalled in mid-January, XRP gave back its gains as well. This shows that the rally wasn’t driven by XRP’s own fundamentals, but just rode the Bitcoin wave.
However, this time is different as XRP had catalysts of its own. First off, Rakuten Wallet integrated XRP into its payment app, letting 44 million Japanese users spend the token at over five million merchants across the country. Ripple also signed a deal with Kyobo Life Insurance to settle tokenized government bonds on its ledger. So, these are real institutional partnerships putting XRP in front of new users and new capital, which is a very different driver than riding Bitcoin’s coattails.
Moreso, XRP ETFs saw renewed inflows last week. January’s inflows came in one big burst, so when the rally stalled, there was no fresh money stepping in to keep it going. This month, institutional money has been coming in steadily. XRP ETFs pulled in $55 million in the week ending April 18—their strongest week of 2026—and cumulative flows have climbed back to $1.27 billion. That’s the same level they were at in mid-January, but this time the money is coming in consistently instead of all at once.
Now, none of this confirms the rally yet as XRP still needs to clear the 100-day EMA around $1.55 before this counts as a real trend reversal. But the MACD flip is sitting on top of real XRP catalysts this time, which means the setup right now is better than that of January.
XRP Price Prediction: Where the Bullish MACD Could Take XRP
Here’s our XRP price prediction based on where the bullish MACD flip could take the token over the next few weeks.
Bull Case: XRP Could Hit $1.80
XRP needs two things to break out cleanly: CLARITY Act passing and the war ceasefire extension. The CLARITY Act markup has to happen before May, and the war ceasefire has to get extended past April 22. If both come through, institutions waiting for regulatory cover could pour another $4 to $8 billion into XRP ETFs, and a daily close above $1.55 would confirm the MACD flip. This could send the XRP price back to $1.80 where it was trading at the start of the year.
Base Case: XRP Could Consolidate Between $1.40 and $1.55
If even only one of those catalysts comes through, XRP could hold the $1.40-$1.55 range. That would still be enough for XRP to close its first green month since September 2025, with the bigger breakout waiting until May.
Bear Case: XRP Could Retest $1.28
The fastest way the rally stalls is if the ceasefire expires on April 22 without a new deal. The fighting could resume, which would push oil prices back above $100, and the MACD could turn bearish. If the CLARITY Act also stalls past May, XRP would likely give back the whole move and slide to $1.30 or lower.
Is XRP’s MACD Flip a Real Reversal or Another Fake-Out?
The MACD is one of the most credible signals XRP has produced all year, but the next ten days would decide if the rally holds. Unlike January’s flip, this one has actual XRP catalysts backing it. However, there are lots of events that could affect the market in the next ten days, from the ceasefire expiry to the FOMC meeting, and then the CLARITY Act markup schedule.
Our take is that the setup is bullish, but you should watch the events more than the chart. If the ceasefire holds and Scott schedules the markup, XRP has a clean runway to $1.80. So the signal is there, but the next ten days will decide how far it actually takes XRP.
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