XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) broke above $1.50 on April 17 for the first time since March, closing out a week that finally looked like a proper breakout. The rally had real catalysts behind it this time—the Rakuten Wallet launch in Japan, the Ripple-Kyobo Life deal in Korea, and the strongest XRP ETF inflows since February. And then the weekend happened.
Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again on Saturday, Bitcoin slipped to $75,000, and the crypto market pulled back with it. As of Monday April 20, XRP trades around $1.43, down roughly 6% from Friday’s high. On the surface, this looks like every other failed XRP rally, however, something is genuinely different this time.
What Happened to XRP Over the Weekend
Friday was the first day in 2026 XRP actually looked like it had broken out. The token hit $1.51 on April 17 for the first time since mid-March, pushed above the $1.45 level that had capped every rally since February, and closed the week outperforming both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Then the weekend turned it around. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said the Strait of Hormuz was closed again to all ships, reversing the reopening Trump and Iran’s foreign minister had announced just 24 hours earlier. Oil prices jumped 7%, Bitcoin slipped to around $74,000, and the whole crypto market pulled back with it.
XRP gave back most of the week’s gains in the process. The token is trading around $1.43 as of Monday April 20, down roughly 6% from Friday’s high. So the rally is still up on the week, but with the war unresolved and oil climbing back up, the pressure that pulled XRP down over the weekend hasn’t gone anywhere.
Why This Pullback Looks Different From Every Other One This Year
Every previous XRP rally in 2026 has seen the crypto drop back to the $1.28-$1.30 range within 48 hours of hitting its top. The March 17 spike to $1.60, off the SEC and CFTC’s joint classification of XRP as a commodity, fell apart within a week. The April 7 pump on the U.S. and Iran ceasefire news also pulled back within 24 hours. Both times, XRP lost the 50-day moving average at$1.40 and settled in the mid-$1.30s until the next catalyst showed up.
This one hasn’t, and XRP is still trading around $1.43 more than 60 hours after Friday’s high. XRP is holding above the 50-day moving average and keeping about half the week’s gains. No other XRP rally in 2026 has managed that during a bad news weekend.
Part of that comes down to what was actually behind the move. Every prior rally rode Bitcoin and faded when BTC cooled. This one had the Rakuten Wallet launch hitting 44 million Japanese users, the Ripple-Kyobo Life deal in Korea, and the launch of wrapped XRP on Solana—a version of XRP that lets holders use the token inside Solana’s DeFi apps without selling it. This shows XRP’s rally is driven by its own fundamentals rather than riding Bitcoin’s waves again.
On top of that, large wallets have been buying more than 11 million XRP a day on average over the past month, the highest pace in 10 months. In other words, the buying during this drop is coming from holders who don’t care what Iran does with the Hormuz this week.
None of this means the rally is safe. However, for the first time since February, a bad news weekend hasn’t been enough to wipe out all of XRP’s gains the week that came before it.
What Monday’s Open Decides for XRP’s Week Ahead
The weekend gave XRP its first real test at $1.43, and the week ahead will decide whether it holds. Monday opens with Hormuz still closed, oil climbing again, and Bitcoin sitting right on the $75,000 price mark. If BTC loses that level, the same pressure that pushed XRP down over the weekend could come back to the market and last week’s rally will likely unravel. But if it holds, XRP’s $1.43 price has a real shot at sticking.
The bigger event this week is the April 22 ceasefire expiry. If the ceasefire lapses without an extension, the whole crypto market will likely get burnt again. Should it get extended—even just another two weeks—then XRP’s recovery will have more room to breathe.
After that, the CLARITY Act markup and the FOMC meeting close out the month. The markup date still isn’t confirmed, and the Fed is almost certainly holding rates on April 28-29. So XRP probably doesn’t need all three catalysts to go the right way. One of them—a ceasefire extension, a CLARITY Act markup date, or a softer tone from the Fed on rate cuts—is enough to keep this rally from collapsing.
Is the XRP Rally Done? Here’s the Honest Take
We don’t think XRP’s rally is over, but this week will decide it. For the first time in a while, a bad news weekend hasn’t pulled XRP back into the $1.28-$1.30 range. The 50-day moving average at $1.40 is still holding, and that alone signals that this rally is different.
As long as XRP closes the week above $1.40, this rally stays intact and XRP could retest $1.50. A ceasefire extension past April 22 would take the macro weight off the whole crypto market, and a firm CLARITY Act markup date before May would bring back institutional buyers into XRP. Either of those alone would be enough to spark another XRP rally toward $1.60 or higher in the coming weeks.
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