XRP Price Prediction: Bitwise’s CIO Predicts XRP Will Hit $29

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is trading at $1.43, down nearly 45% year-to-date and stuck between $1.30 and $1.50 for the past month. The token has gone nowhere despite a run of major structural wins this year. 

The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, putting it on the same legal footing as Bitcoin and Ethereum. XRP ETFs have pulled in roughly $1.28 billion in cumulative inflows since launching. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse also joined the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee in February.

Despite XRP struggling to break above $1.45, analysts have presented a wide range of forecasts. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s XRP price prediction is one raising eyebrows, forecasting XRP will hit $29 by 2030. Hougan laid out year-by-year XRP price projections from 2026 through 2030 using a CAPM model. Let’s find out how realistic any of those projections are.

Bitwise’s XRP Price Prediction: 2026 to 2030

Bitwise has published one of the most detailed XRP forecasts any major asset manager has produced. The firm released its 32-page “Investment Case for XRP” report in April 2025, laying out year-by-year price targets through 2030 across three scenarios: a bear case, a bull case, and a max case.

Under the max case, Bitwise sees the XRP price closing 2026 at $6.53, climbing to $9.60 by the end of 2027, and reaching $29.32 by 2030. Between those milestones, the firm models XRP hitting $13.84 in 2028 and $20.14 in 2029. The full max case track works out to roughly 46% annualized returns, or about a 20x gain from today’s $1.43.

Outside the max case, Bitwise’s bull and bear scenarios are nowhere near $29. The bull case caps XRP at $12.68 by 2030—a 27% annual return, or roughly a 9x gain from today’s $1.43, assuming steady growth with no major adoption surprises. 

The bear case, which assumes XRP fails to capture meaningful tokenization or payments market share, forecasts an XRP price decline to $0.13 by 2030—a 91% loss from current levels. That’s nearly a 230x spread between Bitwise’s worst and best outcomes, which is a wide range that reflects genuine uncertainty about which path XRP takes.

Bitwise XRP Price Prediction for 2030: From $0.13 to $29

Each of Bitwise’s three 2030 scenarios depends on the levels of XRP adoption, regulatory progress, and Ripple’s market share in payments and tokenization.

Bitwise’s bear case forecasts that XRP will plunge to $0.13 by 2030. The firm states that this scenario plays out if XRP fails to capture meaningful market share in either payments or tokenization. Bitwise’s analysts envision a path where institutional adoption stalls, banks continue to rely on SWIFT, and stablecoins from competitors take over the cross-border flows Ripple has been chasing. Plugging -50% alpha and 147% volatility into the CAPM equation produces a -59% annualized return, which compounds to a 91% loss from today’s $1.43 by 2030.

The bull case is where Bitwise expects XRP to settle if growth is steady but unspectacular. The firm models zero alpha (XRP performing in line with the broader crypto market) and 89% volatility, which yields 27% annualized returns. On that track, Bitwise sees XRP reaching $4.94 in 2026, $6.25 in 2027, $7.91 in 2028, $10.02 in 2029, and $12.68 by 2030—roughly a 9x gain from today’s $1.43. The firm describes this as the most realistic path under moderate institutional adoption without major regulatory setbacks.

Bitwise’s max case is the most optimistic scenario, and it’s where the $29.32 price target comes from. The firm assumes XRP will capture 1% to 2% of the projected $10.9 trillion global tokenization market by 2030—an XRPL footprint between $109 billion and $218 billion in tokenized real-world assets. 

Combined with growing payments market share, Bitwise applies a positive 1% alpha and 75% volatility to arrive at 46% annualized returns, which compounds to roughly a 20x gain from today’s $1.43. Bitwise also flags XRP’s fee burn mechanics as a potential amplifier, noting that rising transaction volume could gradually reduce the circulating supply.

Can Bitwise’s XRP Predictions Actually Hold Up?

Bitwise’s own model has already been tested against 2025’s reality. Its max case projected XRP closing the year at $4.48, but the token actually closed near $2, which is less than half what the model projected. That’s a meaningful miss in the scenario that drives the entire $29 forecast, and it raises a fair question about how much weight to put on the 2030 endpoint.

Bitwise’s tokenization assumption is the most stretched part of the max case forecast. The model projects XRPL will host between $109 billion and $218 billion in tokenized real-world assets by 2030. 

The XRP Ledger currently hosts about $2.3 billion in tokenized RWAs, so Bitwise’s projection needs roughly 47 times more growth in less than five years. The 2025 RWA growth rate of 2,200% supports the trajectory mathematically, but it’s growth from a tiny base. Most of XRPL’s tokenized value is in a single energy token held by just 12 wallets.

Even Bitwise’s bull case has potential problems holding up too. Spot XRP ETFs launched with strong demand, but weekly inflows have cooled significantly from those launch highs. The bull case assumes moderate institutional adoption continues, and the current trajectory is moving the wrong way.

The current trajectory fits Bitwise’s bull case far better than the max case. XRP at $12.68 by 2030 would still be a strong outcome—close to a 9x return from $1.43—but it requires far less of a leap of faith than the $29.32 number does.

Should XRP Holders Trust Bitwise’s $29 Prediction?

Bitwise’s $29 XRP prediction is one of the most optimistic scenarios on the table for XRP. The framework lays out three honest scenarios with the conditions each one requires, giving investors a structured way to think about which path the market is on.

What would actually move the XRP price toward any of these scenarios is fairly specific. XRPL’s tokenization growth would need to scale to roughly $5 billion per quarter for the max case to stay alive. Weekly XRP ETF inflows would need to recover above $50 million for the bull case to hold up. The whole model also leans on Bitcoin getting to $1 million by 2029, so XRP’s upside ultimately tracks whether the broader crypto market rallies that much.