Gold’s Worst Pullback in Months Is Here. Here’s Why Safe-Haven Assets Are Sliding

The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (^XAU) is sliding, with the ^XAU down about 1% as bullion extends its first sustained pullback in months. Spot gold has slipped below $4,700 per ounce, and the move is bleeding into every public vehicle tied to the metal. Over the past month, PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index (^XAU) has shaved off about 13.7% as its role as a safe-haven asset becomes challenged. Rising real yields are doing the damage.

Why bullion is leaking lower

The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.34%, near the upper end of its 12-month range and at the 75th percentile of the past year. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays nothing. The VIX at 18.71 is in the normal 15 to 20 band, confirming this is a yield-and-dollar story rather than panic selling. Treasury yields are ticking higher Monday, with the 10-year note at 4.318% and the 2-year at 3.797%, as political unrest domestically and fresh uncertainty around U.S.-Iran negotiations weigh on sentiment. The moves come ahead of a packed central bank week, with the Fed widely expected to hold rates steady on Wednesday.

The Iran conflict, now approaching three months, has scrambled the safe-haven playbook. Morgan Stanley’s Amy Gower noted that reduced Fed rate-cut hopes mean “gold has struggled to work as a safe haven this time.” ETFs have shed 90 tons globally, and the Turkish central bank sold 52 tons in March. Equities keep printing records.

How the move is hitting public proxies

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA:GLD | GLD Price Prediction) is tracking bullion almost tick for tick, off roughly 1% intraday after a 3% weekly drop. The miners are taking the leveraged hit. Newmont (NYSE:NEM) is down about 3% today in some profit taking, and the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) is off 1.59%. Miners typically move two to three times the metal because their margins flex with the gold price.

Newmont’s fundamentals remain a counterweight. The company posted $3.1 billion in free cash flow for Q1 2026, its highest quarterly profit ever, and analysts carry a $142 target with 18 buy or strong-buy ratings against three holds and sells.

What today’s tape tells gold investors

Bullion is still up 9.32% year-to-date through GLD, and Newmont is up about 120% over the past year. The longer-term bull case rests on central-bank buying, which APMEX’s Brett Elliott calls a likely “floor” on prices. Near-term, Thomas Winmill of Midas Funds sees a 10 to 20% decline as plausible if real rates hold.

Watch the next CPI print and any softening in the 10-year yield. A break back below 4.20% would relieve pressure on bullion. A move higher, or a credible Iran ceasefire that reopens the Strait of Hormuz, would likely extend this pullback through the miners first.