Gold reached an all-time high near $5,400 following reports of joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites, threatening oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude surged to more than $76 per barrel, its highest level in more than a year, amplifying safe-haven demand. With some analysts targeting gold well over $6,000, central banks continuing to accumulate, and the People’s Bank of China buying for consecutive months, the structural bid under gold looks durable. The question is how analysts and investors are thinking about gold exposure.
Here is a look at four gold-related instruments and how they have performed.
4. SPDR Gold Trust: The Pure Play
SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEARCA: GLD | GLD Price Prediction) tracks physical gold directly, charges a 0.40% expense ratio, and holds $174.1 billion in net assets, making it the largest gold ETF in the world. No earnings surprises, no mining cost headwinds, no management risk. You own gold.
The fund is up 19.05% year-to-date and 75.35% over the past year. Billionaires Ken Griffin and Israel Englander both hold positions. It is widely used as a liquid, direct gold tracking instrument.
Risk note: No income, no leverage to price upside. If gold pulls back on an Iran de-escalation, the fund falls with it.
3. VanEck Gold Miners ETF: Diversified Miner Exposure
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA: GDX) holds about 50 individual mining companies across multiple geographies. Its top three positions (Newmont, Agnico Eagle, and Barrick) represent roughly 32% of the portfolio. The fund carries a 0.51% expense ratio and $33.6 billion in net assets.
The fund is up 21.93% year-to-date and 166.63% over the past year, outpacing physical gold on both timeframes. Miners outperforming bullion is a classic signal of an early-to-mid stage gold bull market, as operating leverage kicks in when gold prices exceed fixed production costs. The fund provides exposure across the mining sector without concentration in a single name.
2. Newmont: The Dividend Miner
Newmont (NYSE: NEM) is the world’s largest gold miner and is notable for its dividend and income profile. Its Q4 2025 results were exceptional: adjusted EPS of $2.52 beat consensus of $1.97 by nearly 28%, and full-year free cash flow hit a record $7.3 billion, up 146.5% year-over-year. The company realized $4,216 per ounce on gold in Q4, demonstrating direct leverage to the current price environment.
CEO Natascha Viljoen summarized the year: “2025 was a milestone year for Newmont, as we delivered on our full-year guidance, strengthened our financial position and made meaningful progress on our commitments.” The company retired $3.4 billion in debt and ended the year in a net cash position. The quarterly dividend was raised to $0.26 per share, with $2.4 billion remaining under a $6 billion buyback authorization.
Newmont trades at 18x trailing earnings with a consensus analyst target of $138.13 versus its current price near $119. The stock is up 19.55% year-to-date and 180.80% over the past year. Headwinds exist: 2026 production guidance steps down to 5.3 million ounces from 5.9 million, and Ghana royalty risk could add approximately $50 per ounce to all-in sustaining costs. At current gold prices, analysts will be watching whether those headwinds materially impact margins.
1. Gold.com: The Standout of 2026
The top performer here isn’t a traditional miner. Gold.com (NYSE: GOLD), formerly A-Mark Precious Metals, is a direct-to-consumer precious metals platform and one of the clearest beneficiaries of surging retail gold demand. The stock is up 64.49% year-to-date, dramatically outpacing every other name on this list.
Its most recent quarter showed revenue of $6.48 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, far exceeding the $3.08 billion estimate. New customers grew 47% to 96,100, active customers rose 64% to 229,100, and average order value jumped 52% to $4,824. Free cash flow came in at $146.8 million, up 38% year-over-year, and cash on the balance sheet surged 303% to $152.1 million. The direct-to-consumer segment now accounts for 77% of gross profit, up from 56% a year ago.
EPS of $0.46 came in just short of the $0.48 estimate, a minor miss against an otherwise strong report. Gross margins narrowed to 1.44% from 1.63% as premium spreads tightened. The company completed its acquisition of Monex Deposit in January 2026, expanding its product reach. Analysts carry a consensus target of $66.75 against a current price near $56.
The Bottom Line
The Iran-driven gold rally has a structural foundation: central bank buying, de-dollarization, and a gold price that closed 2025 in the $4,300 to $4,400 range before pushing higher in 2026. SPDR Gold Trust provides direct physical gold tracking. VanEck Gold Miners ETF provides diversified exposure across the mining sector. Newmont combines gold price leverage with a dividend and strong balance sheet. Gold.com has posted the strongest YTD returns among the four, reflecting surging retail demand. Gold is volatile, and any de-escalation in the Middle East could reverse momentum quickly. But these four names represent the full spectrum of gold exposure available today.
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