Gold Slides, 30-Year Yield Hits 5.1% as Rate Fears Take Over

The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (^XAU) is under pressure Monday as precious metals pull back across the board. SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA: GLD) ETF is down 1.3% to roughly $418, while iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA: SLV) ETF is off 2.3% near $67 as the market reassesses what the Strait of Hormuz disruption actually means for inflation, rates and the dollar. The PHLX Gold/Silver Sector (^XAU) has narrowed its YTD advance to 2.5% as the spot gold price has retreated from the $5,100/ounce level.

Why the Hormuz disruption is working against gold

It sounds counterintuitive, but the same supply shock rattling energy markets is creating headwinds for bullion. WTI crude now hovers near $100 a barrel after spiking to a 12-month peak around $115 last month when supply fears were at their worst. That energy shock fed directly into prices: U.S. CPI hit 3.3% in March 2026, the fastest pace in nearly two years, and it’s keeping the Fed in a holding pattern. The 30-year Treasury yield has crossed 5% for the first time since July, while the 10-year sits at 4.4%.

That environment is difficult for non-yielding assets. Gold is caught between its safe-haven appeal and the gravitational pull of real rates, with bullion futures slipping below $4,600 per troy ounce after falling more than 12% since the Iran war began. The VIX near 17, down roughly 31% over the past month, tells the same story: fear has normalized, and capital is rotating toward yield-bearing assets rather than metals.

The longer-term case hasn’t changed

The pullback looks more dramatic than the underlying fundamentals suggest. GLD is still up 42% over the past year, and SLV has more than doubled with a 132% gain. Central banks bought a record amount of gold in 2025, and 95% of institutions surveyed by the World Gold Council expect global reserves to keep climbing. Structural demand remains firmly intact even as short-term traders deleverage.

What to watch

Wall Street hasn’t turned bearish. Goldman Sachs continues to target higher gold prices into year-end, JPMorgan identifies $4,400 to $4,600 as a strong support zone, and other major banks have nudged their forecasts higher as well. Goldman flags a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz as the clearest near-term catalyst, one that would ease oil prices and allow real-rate pressures to cool. This week’s energy headlines and the next CPI print will go a long way toward determining whether today’s selloff is a buying opportunity or the beginning of a deeper consolidation.