Live: onsemi Q1 Earnings Tonight. Can the Stock Continue Its 90% YTD Rally?

Why Tonight’s Guidance Matters More Than Results

Wall Street has already priced in a beat on Q1, so the Q2 and full-year guide will dictate the market’s reaction. onsemi (NASDAQ:ON | ON Price Prediction) management has guided conservatively in 3 of the last 4 quarters, landing actuals inside the range each time.

What Could Push the Stock Higher

Q2 revenue guidance above $1.55B, non-GAAP gross margin trending above 40%, and explicit AI data center power dollar contribution. That would validate the stock’s 90.27% climb year-to-date.

What Could Send the Stock Lower

Flat-to-down sequential revenue, gross margin stuck near 38.2%, and cautious automotive or China commentary. With shares at $102.90 versus a $75.17 consensus target, soft guidance gives bears room to compress the multiple from a trailing P/E of 355 (forward P/E of 35).

Investors should also focus on Power Solutions Group commentary and utilization rates.

The Thesis Check: Bull vs. Bear Into Tonight’s Report

With onsemi (NASDAQ:ON) trading near $102.99 ahead of the 4:30 PM ET release, here is the balanced setup.

Bull Case

• Record $1.42 billion FY2025 free cash flow funds a $6 billion buyback.
• Management cited “increasing signs of stabilization” across automotive and industrial.
• vGaN wins and AI data center power exposure open a fresh growth vector.
• Polymarket implies a 93% beat probability.

Bear Case

• Q1 revenue midpoint of ~$1.485B sits below Q4’s $1.53 billion.
• Gross margin compressed to 38.2% from 45.3%.
• Trailing P/E sits at 355, well above analyst targets, which average $75.17.
• All three segments declined YoY, with Intelligent Sensing down 17%.

Prediction markets are leaning heavily bullish on onsemi (NASDAQ:ON). Polymarket’s active contract on whether the chipmaker beats Q1 non-GAAP EPS is pricing a 91.5% probability of a beat against 8.5% odds of a miss.

Liquidity is thin. Total volume sits at $1,983.25, with $803.13 traded in the past 24 hours and open interest of $1,616.25. The reference strike implied by the market URL is $0.61 non-GAAP EPS, sitting in the middle of management’s guided range.

That conviction tracks the historical record: onsemi has beaten EPS in 3 of the last 4 quarters, riding a 2-quarter streak. The crowd expects momentum behind the 90.27% YTD rally to extend.

Here is the full 90-day insider picture for onsemi (NASDAQ:ON) ahead of tonight’s Q1 report.

CFO Thad Trent sold 30,000 shares on three separate occasions in April, with sale prices stepping up from $80 to $93 and then to $100 per share. Director Paul Mascarenas made a small open-market purchase on April 3 at $62.19 per share, while CEO Hassane El-Khoury received 90,966 shares through an RSU award in February.

In total, insiders acquired 398,681 shares and sold 379,168 shares over the past 90 days. However, most of the buying came from non-cash RSU awards, which carry less signaling value than open-market purchases.

With shares now trading at $102.95, well above the $75.17 analyst price target, insider activity suggests management is taking profits rather than adding conviction ahead of earnings.

Potential Bull Case Triggers:

• Non-GAAP EPS above $0.66 with Q2 revenue guide above $1,535M
• Non-GAAP gross margin above 39.5%, signaling utilization climbing toward the mid-70s range
• AI data center commentary reaffirming high-teens sequential growth

Potential Bear Case Triggers:

• Revenue below $1,435M, particularly from weakness in the Power Solutions Group
• Weak gross margins
• Cautious automotive commentary

Wild Cards:

A $200M to $300M non-cash impairment from manufacturing restructuring, China, and tariff exposure flagged by Barclays at its $75 equal-weight initiation, and CFO Thad Trent’s three 30,000-share sales in late April at $80, $93, and $100.