Live: Seagate Q3 Earnings Are After the Bell – Will Their Hot Streak Continue?
Quick Read
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Seagate (STX) reports Q3 earnigns after the bell tongight. Wall Street expects adjusted EPS of $3.50 on revenue of $2.957 billion. We’ll be closely watching for commentary on the company’s HAMR ramp, nearterm demand expectations, and their future margin profile. Both Seagate and rival Western Digital (WDC) have seen their share prices skyrocket throughout 2025 and 2026.
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This live blog is being updated by Eric Bleeker, who hosts the 24/7 Wall St. AI Investor Podcast. So you’ll get expert analysis of their earnings. Simply stay on this page and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Seagate’s earnings to be released shortly after 4:05 p.m. ET.
Live Updates
Seagate Shares Up 14% As of 5 p.m. ET
It’s now 5 p.m. and Seagate shares are up 14% as the company begins its conference call. We’ll be winding down this live blog, but make sure to come back to 24/7 Wall St. tomorrow for more coverage on the company’s blowout earnings. You can also scroll below to see past updates.
Seagate Isn't the Only AI Stock Blowing Out Earnings Tonight
Seagate shares are up 12.6% as of 4:25 p.m. ET.
As we’ve covered, those gains are thanks to earnings that far surpassed expectations. Margins came in much stronger than Wall Street expected.
We’re also covering Bloom Energy’s earnings tonight, and that company delivered as well. Bloom Energy shares are up 10% after the company delivered revenue of $751 million against Wall Street’s expectations of $540 million.
Bloom also raised its full-year guidance.
It’s another good night for investors in the AI infrastructure trade.
Seagate Shares Settling into 9% Gains After-Hours: Now Up More than 120% Year-to-Date
Seagate shares have been running after reporting Q3 earnings, it appears their gains have stalled after hitting 9%.
That’s a tremendous after-hours movement for a stock that’s already up more than 100% year-to-date before tonight’s after-hours action.
Normally stocks that have seen this much momentum struggle to see large movements after reporting earnings, but Seagate’s report was just that good.
Here's What Seagate's CEO Said About Their Blowout Q3 Earnings
Here’s a couple of quotes from Seagate CEO Dave Mosley on the company’s extraordinary Q3 earnings:
“Seagate delivered outstanding March quarter results, exceeding the high end of our revenue and EPS guidance, achieving record margin performance, and generating close to $1 billion in free cash flow,” said Dave Mosley, Seagate’s chair and chief executive officer.
“We believe Seagate is entering a new era of structural growth as AI applications amplify data creation and support sustained storage demand. Our areal density-driven product strategy enables us to deliver higher-capacity, energy- and capital-efficient storage at scale. Through disciplined execution, we are strategically positioned to capture these opportunities, and drive profitable growth and long-term value creation,” Mosley concluded.
Free Cash Flow Crushes Expectations While Guidance Delivers
Wall Street was expecting $762 million in free cash flow last quarter, but Seagate easily cleared that bar. The company delivered $953 million in the quarter.
Guidance calls for $3.5 billion in revenue next quarter, significantly ahead of Wall Street’s expectations of $3.1 billion.
In addition, the company is guiding to $5 in EPS, ahead of Wall Street’s expectations of $3.92.
This is an across-the-board blowout for Seagate.
Seagate Shares Are Up Big After Hours - Margin Expansion Is a Key Catalyst
We’ve now had a few minutes for Wall Street to digest Seagate’s earnings, and shares are still rising. They are now up 8%.
One of the key areas we said to watch was margin expansion, with the company reporting EPS of $4.10 (versus expectations of $3.50), versus a revenue beat that’s a much smaller percentage. This shows Seagate is continuing to expand margins ahead of schedule.
Seagate's Q3 Earnings Are Out: Here are the Need to Know Numbers
Seagate Q3 earnings are out. Here’s what the company reported:
- Revenue: $3.11 billion
- Adjusted EPS: $4.10
As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street expected:
- Revenue: $2.957 billion
- EPS: $3.50
Here are some other measures Wall Street was expecting that we detailed earlier. We’ll be digging into their performance against the Street’s expectations in future updates.
- Gross Margins: Wall Street expects 44.52% gross margins, up from 42.2% the quarter prior. Looking ahead to Q4, Wall Street expects gross margins to rise once again to 45.61%
- Guidance: Wall Street expects $3.97 in adjusted EPS in Q4 on $3.151 billion in sales
- Free Cash Flow: Expectations for free cash flow this quarter stand at $762.1 million.
Shares are initially up 5% on the news.
Seagate Shares Down 2.6% In Late Trading
The closing bell is about to ring, Seagate shares are down 2.6% amidst a broader sell-off in AI stocks. Rival Western Digital is down a similar amount today.
We expect Seagate to report earnings at 4:05 p.m. ET. As soon as they report, we’ll update this live blog with news and analysis.
Wall Street Expects Rising Margins When Seagate Reports Tonight
We detailed earlier that Wall Street is expecting $3.50 in adjusted EPS and $2.957 billion in revenue when Seagate reports Q3 earnings tonight. Both those numbers are up sequentially from Fiscal Q2.
Some other areas to watch:
- Gross Margins: Wall Street expects 44.52% gross margins, up from 42.2% the quarter prior. Looking ahead to Q4, Wall Street expects gross margins to rise once again to 45.61%
- Guidance: Wall Street expects $3.97 in adjusted EPS in Q4 on $3.151 billion in sales
- Free Cash Flow: Expectations for free cash flow this quarter stand at $762.1 million.
Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX | STX Price Prediction) reports fiscal Q3 2026 earnings tonight after the market close. Shares have surged into the earnings report, and the bar set by management is high.
The Setup After a Blowout December Quarter
Last quarter, Seagate posted non-GAAP EPS of $3.11 on revenue of $2.825 billion, up 21.51% year over year, with non-GAAP gross margin hitting a record 42.2%. Free cash flow jumped to $607 million, the highest level in eight years. Since that January report, STX has rallied 60.57%, including a 10.4% move in the past week alone.
Guidance and Consensus
Management’s own guidance is the cleanest benchmark heading in.
| Metric | Q3 FY26 Guide | Q2 FY26 Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.90B (+/- $100M) | $2.825B |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $3.40 (+/- $0.20) | $3.11 |
| Operating Margin | Mid-30% range | 31.9% |
The midpoint represents a 34% year-over-year revenue lift.
What I’m Watching Tonight
Three pillars matter most. First, the HAMR ramp. Quarterly Mozaic shipments crossed 1.5 million units by year-end 2025, with Mozaic 4 (4 terabytes per disk) set to begin ramping later this quarter. Second, nearline demand. Data center revenue hit $2.2 billion last quarter and capacity is fully allocated through calendar 2026, with 2027 orders opening soon. Third, margin trajectory. CFO Gianluca Romano said the company is tracking ahead of the Investor Day model of 50% incremental margin above $2.6 billion of revenue, with March quarter gross margin guided up roughly 250 basis points.
Pricing is the underrated variable. CEO Dave Mosley said “flat to slightly up is certainly possible” as supply tightens through 2027.
Why Tonight Matters
STX trades at 66 times earnings with a market cap near $131 billion. After three straight beats and a vertical rally, the bar for tonight is execution, not surprise. Reaffirming full-allocation visibility into 2027 would extend the AI storage thesis. Anything less invites profit-taking.
Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.
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