XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is back at $1.40 again, and the chart is starting to look like the setup analysts have been calling since April. The token has tried to push past the $1.45 resistance multiple times this year, but the bears keep pushing it back to the $1.35-$1.44 range every time.
Today’s push above $1.40 finally came with strong buying volume—over $1.5 billion in 24-hour trading. Volume like that suggests buyers are actually positioning rather than chasing a quick spike.
The move puts XRP right at the edge of a cup-and-handle pattern that’s been forming since late March, with $1.50 as the neckline that needs to break for the breakout to be confirmed. As XRP hits $1.40 again, will the cup-and-handle breakout finally confirm?
What’s Different About XRP’s Move to $1.40 Today?
For most of the year, XRP’s attempts at $1.45 have played out the same way. XRP has stayed in the $1.30-1.44 range for the past three months, and the moment it tries to break $1.45, the bears immediately push it back, and the price drops into the lower end of its range.
But what changed is the buying behind today’s move. The XRP price climbed from $1.38 to a high of $1.42 in early Asia hours before settling around $1.40, and buyers piled in during the actual breakout. The hourly chart also shows higher-lows leading into the move, which means buyers were absorbing dips at $1.38 before today’s push.
That doesn’t mean the breakout is confirmed. XRP still has to hold $1.40 through a full trading session, and a pullback below would put today’s move in the same pile as false breakouts. But today’s move has strong buying demand behind it.
A Cup-and-Handle Pattern Has Been Building Since March
Today’s $1.40 push hits the edge of a cup-and-handle pattern that’s been forming on the XRP chart since mid-March. The pattern is a U-shape recovery followed by a smaller pullback, and it’s bullish if it breaks higher. But it only works when trading volume confirms the breakout.
XRP carved the cup from a mid-March base around $1.25-$1.30, then climbed to a peak near $1.50 by April 17. That’s where the handle started forming. Since then, XRP has pulled back into a tight $1.37-$1.43 range and stayed there for more than two weeks now. The handle has stayed shallow, and a deeper pullback into the bottom half of the cup would have invalidated the pattern.
The neckline is at $1.50, which is the same level the cup peaked at. A clean break above that level would confirm the pattern. The measured move target—calculated from the cup’s depth—puts the XRP price at $1.65-$1.70, which is a 16-18% gain from the breakout level.
However, the pattern has a clock on it. Cup-and-handle setups that consolidate too long tend to fail, and this handle is already past the two-week mark, and that gives today’s move a tight deadline.
What Would Confirm or Invalidate XRP’s Breakout?
The cup-and-handle confirms or fails at specific levels, and XRP is right between them at $1.40. Confirmation needs a daily close above $1.50—the cup’s neckline, and XRP hasn’t traded at that level since April 17. A weekly close above $1.46 is also key. XRP has failed to close above $1.45-$1.50 in a week in a long time, and holding above $1.46 would be the first break of that pattern.
Before XRP can hit $1.50, it has to break through one more wall on the way up. About 1.16 billion XRP was bought between $1.44 and $1.45 by investors who are currently underwater. When the price reaches that range, many of them will sell to break even—and if today’s buying isn’t strong enough to absorb that selling, the rally will stall before clearing $1.45 again.
On the downside, a break below $1.32-$1.35 invalidates the pattern. That’s the lower edge of the handle, and losing it means XRP has dropped out of the cup-and-handle structure entirely.
The next few sessions will decide which way this goes. First, today’s push has to survive a full U.S. trading session. Prior rallies toward $1.45 have faded after reaching the resistance, and if today’s doesn’t, the breakout setup stays alive. After that, attention will shift to whether XRP can clear $1.45 convincingly and close above $1.46 by Friday, May 8.
Is This XRP’s Breakout, or Another False Start?
It’s too early to call this XRP’s breakout, but today’s volume shows buyers are setting up for a bigger move. For the breakout to confirm, the buying behind today’s move has to extend into a clean break above $1.50—that’s what would validate the cup-and-handle pattern.
There are key catalysts lining up for mid-May that could trigger a breakout rally. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse said he expects the Senate Banking Committee to mark up the CLARITY Act the week of May 11, before the Senate breaks for Memorial Day on May 21.
That’s the same window the cup-and-handle pattern hits its own deadline—the handle has been forming since April 17, and setups that consolidate too long start to fail. If the bill clears the committee, the institutional buying that’s been waiting for legal clarity will move in—and that’s the demand needed to push through $1.45 and $1.50.
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