XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is back at $1.40, and that feels like familiar territory for anyone who’s been watching or holding the token this year. The XRP price has tested the $1.45 resistance four separate times—including the April 17 push that briefly hit $1.50 before falling back—and gotten rejected at every single attempt.
The token climbed from $1.39 to $1.42 overnight after Bitcoin hit $80K and Trump’s Project Freedom announcement triggered a market pump. Now that the XRP price is back at $1.40, and the next target is the $1.45 resistance again. Hence comes the question we’ve asked a million times over: Can XRP break the $1.45 resistance and hold it this time?
Why XRP Reclaimed $1.40 as Bitcoin Cleared $80K
The whole thing started with a Truth Social post Sunday evening. Trump announced “Project Freedom”—a U.S. military operation to escort stranded foreign cargo ships out of the Iran-blocked Strait of Hormuz.
It kicks off Monday morning Middle East time with 15,000 troops, guided-missile destroyers, and over 100 aircraft from the U.S. Central Command. Investors took it as a sign the U.S. is forcing the issue without waiting on Tehran’s cooperation, and that was enough to flip the mood across the crypto market.
Bitcoin took the brunt of it, as BTC pushed past $80,000 for the first time since January, settling near $80,500. The move was a short squeeze—traders betting against BTC got forced to buy back at higher prices. Coinglass logged over $285 million in short positions liquidated in the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin alone accounting for $160 million. Short positions that had been set above $80K for weeks, but got run over the moment BTC hit the level.
Then XRP and the broader market rode the waves. The token climbed from $1.39 on Sunday to $1.42 by Monday morning UK time—a 2% move. XRP’s gain was the smallest of the major altcoins, which says something about today’s setup: XRP isn’t leading this rally, but being pulled along by Bitcoin.
Why $1.45 Has Been XRP’s Ceiling for Most of the Year
If you’ve held XRP through most of 2026, you’ve probably noticed the $1.45 resistance is the one to beat. On March 17, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity—the biggest regulatory win XRP has ever had—and the XRP price spiked to $1.60. But it was back below $1.45 by the end of the same week.
On April 17, after Rakuten added XRP as a payment method for 44 million users in Japan, the token rallied 10% and broke through $1.50. But a few days later, it was back below $1.45 again. Then, on April 22, XRP reclaimed $1.45 again with whales accumulating and ETF inflows running their best week of the year, only to get rejected again.
This points to one single problem: the supply overhang at $1.45. The same group of holders shows up at $1.45 every time it rallies towards or above it. About 36.8 billion XRP—roughly 60% of the entire circulating supply—is held at an average cost basis of $1.44, per Glassnode data from March. That’s millions of wallets underwater, which adds up to roughly $50.8 billion in unrealized losses. Those holders usually sell to break even or take profit the moment XRP reaches $1.44 or $1.45
No catalyst has triggered XRP to break through this wall and hold it. The SEC’s commodity classification, Ripple’s banking integrations, ETF inflows, or whale accumulation. XRP has had every one of them this year, and none has been enough to absorb the 1.16 billion XRP clustered exactly at the $1.44-$1.45 break-even zone—the tightest concentration within that 36.8 billion.
Even Deutsche Bank embedding the XRP Ledger into its cross-border payment infrastructure didn’t move the price through. The supply overhang remains the biggest bottleneck for the XRP price. Until something generates enough sustained buying to absorb those break-even sellers, the $1.45 resistance will stay as the ceiling.
What Could Push XRP From $1.41 to $1.50 This Month
There are three key catalysts on the calendar between now and May 21, and XRP needs more than one of them to come through to break the $1.45 resistance.
Project Freedom starts today in Middle East time. If ships actually move through the Strait of Hormuz, oil price eases, then risk assets will keep climbing—and XRP could rally together with the rest of the market.
Today’s XRP ETF flow data, dropping later, will be the first read on whether institutional buyers are back. Then on Wednesday, May 7, GraniteShares will take its sixth swing at launching 3x leveraged XRP ETFs on NASDAQ. The launch itself might not move XRP much, as these are short-term trader products. The main thing to watch would be if the SEC obstructs the launch the same way it stopped ProShares’ identical 3x XRP product in December.
Bigger than any of those, though, is the CLARITY Act. Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott told Fox Business on May 1 that he’s aiming for a May markup. If that doesn’t happen before the Senate’s Memorial Day recess on May 21, the bill will be shelved until after the November midterms—another six months minimum.
The CLARITY Act is the main catalyst that can trigger XRP to break $1.45 and hold it, because of how much buying it would unlock. Standard Chartered estimates $4 to $8 billion in extra XRP ETF inflows if the bill clears the committee. That would be more than enough to absorb the 1.16 billion XRP overhead at $1.44-$1.45 and push the price through $1.50 and beyond.
XRP Price Prediction: Bull, Base, and Bear Cases
XRP is trading at $1.41 right now, and its short-term outlook remains uncertain. Iran’s response to Project Freedom over the next few days, plus what Tim Scott decides about the CLARITY markup, could decide XRP’s next move.
Bullish Case: $1.50 to $1.70
If Project Freedom delivers without Iran pushing back, oil could ease toward $100 and the broader rally could carry on through the next two weeks. Bitcoin could push toward $82,000-$85,000, and XRP would likely get pulled higher with it.
A scheduled CLARITY markup before mid-May would bring institutional buyers back, and that buying could be enough to absorb the $1.45 cost-basis wall. A clean break of $1.45 would put $1.50 in play, and XRP could target $1.65 to $1.70.
Base Case: $1.38 to $1.45
The most likely outcome is XRP retesting $1.45 again on the current momentum. But we see XRP getting rejected for the fifth time this year, and slipping back into the same $1.35-$1.44 range it’s been stuck in all year. This prediction assumes that CLARITY Act’s markup will be delayed again, meaning, there won’t be institutional buying big enough to absorb the cost-basis wall.
Bearish Case: $1.30 to $1.20
If Iran retaliates against Project Freedom, today’s rally could unwind. A tanker attack, a strike on U.S. forces, or a refusal to let ships through could send oil prices back above $108 and trigger a sell-off across crypto. The $1.40 support could break, with $1.30 as the next floor. If a direct U.S. and Iran fighting breaks out again, then XRP could push toward $1.20.
Will XRP Break $1.45 or Get Rejected Again?
XRP can hit $1.45 over the next two weeks, and today’s macro tailwind alone is probably enough to get it there. But hitting $1.45 isn’t the question that matters. Holding above it is, and that requires more than what Project Freedom by itself can deliver.
The signal worth watching this week is whether XRP can post a daily close above $1.47 with strong buying demand behind it. That’s the 50-day moving average and the level where intraday spikes could turn into actual trend confirmation. A weekly close above $1.47 with rising volume would signal that the institutional buyers are back and the cost-basis wall will finally be broken. Without that, every XRP push to $1.45 will meet the same rejection fate.
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