Investors are watching Disney (NYSE:DIS | DIS Price Prediction) ahead of fiscal Q2 2026 results due before the bell tomorrow, May 6. Shares are barely holding $100 at $100.69, down 10.95% YTD. This is new CEO Josh D’Amaro’s first real test.
D’Amaro Inherits a Crowded To-Do List
Last quarter, Disney beat with adjusted EPS of $1.63 on revenue of $25.981 billion, up 5.23% YoY. Streaming carried the headline. SVOD operating income jumped 72% to $450 million with subscription fees up 13%, and Experiences delivered record quarterly revenue of $10.006 billion.
Entertainment segment operating income fell 35% on heavy programming and marketing costs, and operating cash flow plunged 77% to $735 million on accelerated tax payments tied to California wildfire disaster relief. Shares closed at $107.49 on report day, then drifted lower as the YouTube TV carriage suspension clipped roughly $110 million from Sports OI. D’Amaro now owns the decline of linear TV, soft international park attendance, and rising content acquisition costs for streaming.
Consensus and YoY Setup
| Metric | Q2 FY26 Consensus / Guide | Q2 FY25 Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EPS | $1.49 | $1.45 |
| Revenue | $24.83B | $23.62B |
| FY26 EPS | $6.64 | FY25: $5.93 |
| FY26 Revenue | $100.98B | FY25: $94.43B |
Streaming Margins, Park Resilience, and a New CEO’s Tone
I’ll be watching three things. First, streaming. Management guided Q2 SVOD operating income to roughly $500 million, an increase of about $200 million YoY, on the way to a 10% full-year margin. After SVOD margin hit 8.4% last quarter, the trajectory looks credible. Rising content costs could pinch.
Second, Experiences. Domestic attendance grew 1% with per-capita spending up 4% in Q1. Q2 carries international visitation headwinds plus pre-launch costs for the Disney Adventure cruise and pre-opening costs for World of Frozen at Disneyland Paris. Management warned of only modest segment OI growth.
Third, Sports. ESPN advertising rose 10% in Q1, but management expects Sports OI down $100 million in Q2 on higher rights expenses, and the YouTube TV dispute is still a wildcard.
You should also watch cash. After the Q1 free cash flow figure of -$2.278 billion, investors want a snapback toward the $19 billion full-year operating cash flow guide. The Polymarket crowd is pricing a 93.1% probability that Disney clears the $1.49 EPS bar.
D’Amaro’s First Earnings Sets the Tone
The 50-day moving average sits at $100.90, essentially where shares trade right now. A miss, or wobbly guidance, likely cracks $100. A clean beat with a credible streaming margin update and a steady Experiences read could put the $128.25 analyst consensus target back in play. D’Amaro’s job tomorrow is straightforward: show that the FY26 double-digit EPS growth target and $7 billion buyback are intact.
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