On a recent episode of The Compound and Friends hosted by Josh Brown, former Janus analyst Matt Ancrum told a story about how he’d made the correct call that Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST | FAST Price Prediction) stock would sell off, but by selling the position, the firm missed out on the stock’s eventual 19x move. This was an epiphany moment that showed the importance of holding for the long term.
The Trade That Looked Genius
On the podcast, the guests told the story about how back in the day, Fastenal, a Minnesota-based industrial distributor that sells nuts, bolts, and other fasteners, accounted for about 8% of the firm’s portfolio. Field research with regional VPs flagged that Fastenal would miss its upcoming earnings, so they sold the stock. Looking back, Ancrum said, “I looked like a genius,” because Fastenal went on to drop 55% while the broader market dropped 15%.
Then came the gut punch. From that low point of roughly $0.65 split-adjusted, Fastenal rose 19-fold while the S&P 500 roughly quadrupled over the same time period. Clients praised the firm for being “saved” by the sell call, but they ended up missing a generational compounder.
Why Fastenal Came Back
Fastenal has a great business model because its industrial products typically account for less than 3% of total project costs, yet missing a single fastener can stop entire construction crews. Fastenal has pricing power because customers pay for reliable supply rather than saving pennies to find the cheapest products themselves.
Fastenal is still a well-run business today. In Q4 2025, the business posted revenue of $2.027 billion, up 11.1% year over year, with EPS of $0.26. Contract customers reached 73.8% of sales, and the FMI device installed base grew to 136,638 MEUs.
The Hero’s Journey of 100-Baggers
Ancrum’s story fits a pattern. Brown framed the universal challenge as “the willingness to endure 50% drawdowns” and described the pattern of 100-baggers as “the hero’s journey,” where companies often have to “come back from the dead” to deliver their biggest gains. Neeraj Khemlani added that over the life of a 100-bagger, “nearly every single one of them experiences an existential event.”
The data shows that most 100-bagger stocks suffer maximum drawdowns of around 70%. The journey is brutal by design.
The Lesson for Finding 100-Bagger Stocks
For investors building retirement portfolios, the takeaway is that the willingness to do nothing can often be one of the most important factors for compounding wealth.
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