Weekly Jobless Seasonality Brings Best Data in 2+ Years

The weekly jobless claims will sound great on the surface for the last report of the year.  Much of this is due to seasonality as many were not heading to the jobless lines.  This is the lowest level in almost two years as the jobless claims at the Labor Department showed a drop of some 34,000 to 388,000.  We have endured more than two years of 400,000 per week.

The prior week’s figures were revised up 2,000 to 422,000.  The four-week average fell by 12,500 to 414,000.

A show of force that may keep the response to this obvious win is that the army of unemployed measured by the continuing jobless claims showed a gain of 57,000 up to 4,128,000 for the week ended December 18.  The prior week was revised higher as well to 4,071,000.

The trick here is that there is a slew of seasonality here during the holiday season.  The reading next week will potentially show the same seasonality.  Whether or not the job gains can offset the seasonal layoffs that are coming in January remains to be seen.

The good news about today’s sub-400,000 per week in jobless claims is that IF the figures can be repeated then we are getting closer to a neutral unemployment situation.

JON C. OGG