The employment report for May is due on Friday from the Labor Department, and the first views of the tally may be a weak. TrimTabs has data out this morning projecting that only 124,000 jobs were added in the month of May.
As of Tuesday the target expected by Bloomberg was that 150,000 jobs were added to the nonfarm payrolls. One estimate was as low as 95,000 and one estimate was as a high as 206,000. Bloomberg also projected that the private payrolls were likely up by 164,000. TrimTabs is now muting those expectations.
This report from TrimTabs precedes the ADP report and Challenger data which are also meant to predict or telegraph the payroll creations each month.
What the TrimTabs report does not indicate is the overall labor force participation rate, although that rate cannot generally have any massive change on a month to month basis. This figure has been diving and sits at a three decade low with the most recent report showing only 63.6% versus about 67% at the peak. With a consensus estimate of 8.1% for the official unemployment rate and with so many able-bodied workers no longer being counted in the workforce, the U.S. is still probably years away from full employment.
JON C. OGG
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