Mixed Analyst Calls on Strong Netflix Earnings

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By Chris Lange Published
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Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) posted its fourth-quarter and full-year results Tuesday after the markets closed. The company reported earnings per share growth of 70.9% from the same period in the previous year and revenues grew 25.4%. Netflix completely blew out the Thomson Reuters consensus estimate for earnings per share, yet only met the estimate for revenues. Accordingly, with these mixed results analyst opinions were mixed as well.

A key takeaway from this report was the growth of earnings driven by a huge addition of subscribers.

Netflix added 2.43 million international subscribers in the fourth quarter, compared with the company’s own estimate at the end of the third quarter for net additions of 2.15 million. The company added 1.90 million subscribers in the United States during the fourth quarter, in line with the company’s earlier estimate of 1.85 million. The company said it had 57.39 million subscribers at the end of December.

For the year, net additions in the United States were up nearly 6 million and international subscribers rose by more than 7 million. Netflix added 2.3 million net subscribers in the fourth quarter a year ago.

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Previously, Netflix had suffered an enormous loss at the hands of a third-quarter subscriber miss that took roughly a 20% bite out of the share price.

Prominent investor and billionaire, Mark Cuban commented when the decline initially happened that it gave Netflix a very favorable valuation, especially for its growth potential, contrary to what some of the analysts were saying at the time. Since the drop, shares have risen 25%, from a low of $331.00 on October 16 to a high on Wednesday of $414.68.

The CEO and CFO commented on the drop and how it played into the company’s strategy going forward:

Although the guidance given for the first quarter by the company falls short of consensus estimates, investors seem to be more concerned with the subscriber numbers. The company expects overall subscriber numbers to grow to 61.4 million by the end of the first quarter. The breakdown calls for 1.8 million net additions in the U.S. and 2.25 net additions internationally.

Analysts have begun weighing in on Netflix, just a day after earnings were reported:

  • SunTrust reiterated a Neutral rating and raised the price target to $410 from $375.
  • Credit Suisse reiterated a Neutral rating and lowered the price target to $417 from $432.
  • Morgan Stanley has an Overweight rating for Netflix and raised its price target to $450 from $425.

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Shares of Netflix were up 18% at $410.94 in the second half of Wednesday’s trading. The stock has a consensus analyst price target of $412.95 and a 52-week trading range of $299.50 to $489.29. The company’s market cap is almost $25 billion.

Photo of Chris Lange
About the Author Chris Lange →

Chris Lange is a writer for 24/7 Wall St., based in Houston. He has covered financial markets over the past decade with an emphasis on healthcare, tech, and IPOs. During this time, he has published thousands of articles with insightful analysis across these complex fields. Currently, Lange's focus is on military and geopolitical topics.

Lange's work has been quoted or mentioned in Forbes, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, MSN, Yahoo, The Verge, Vice, The Intelligencer, Quartz, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Fox Business, International Business Times, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Barron’s, Benzinga, and many other major publications.

A graduate of Southwestern University in Georgetown, Texas, Lange majored in business with a particular focus on investments. He has previous experience in the banking industry and startups.

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