The best-seller over that period will be single-aisle, narrow-body jets like Boeing’s 737 and its scheduled 737 Max. Boeing expects global purchases of more than 25,000 of this class of planes with a dollar value of $2.56 trillion, slightly more than half the total spending over the next 20 years.
More than a third of all new planes will be sold in the Asia-Pacific region. Boeing expects airlines in the region to purchase 13,460 new planes of which 9,540 will be single-aisle. The total market value of Asia-Pacific deliveries is forecast at $2.02 trillion and the average value per plane is $220 million.
The North American market is forecast to acquire 7,550 new planes in the next 20 years of which 4,820 will be single-aisle planes. The total market value of those planes is $870 million and the average value per plane is $120 million.
Boeing expects deliveries to the Middle East market to total 2,950 new planes at a total value of $640 billion and an average value of $220 million per plane. Less than half the total deliveries will be the single-aisle planes that dominate in every other region.
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European carriers are expected to add 7,450 new planes in the years to 2033 with a total value of $1.04 trillion and an average value per plane of $140 million. Single-aisle jets again dominate purchases with the total expected to be 3,120.
Trailing well behind the single-aisle deliveries are small, dual-aisle airplanes such as the 787-8 and 787-9 Dreamliners. Boeing expects a total of 4,520 of this class of aircraft to be delivered in the next 20 years. Boeing believes that Asia-Pacific will take delivery of 1,940 of this class of plane, far more than any other region.
Medium range wide-bodies such as the 777 and 777X account for 3,460 deliveries over the next 20 years. These are currently the most costly of Boeing’s planes and about 64% of the deliveries are expected to be made in Asia-Pacific (1,420) and the Middle East (790). Only 510 of these planes are destined for North America with another 590 going to Europe.
Asia-Pacific is the key region for aircraft makers and the huge demand for single-aisle planes is due to a projected increase in the number of low-cost carriers that will open new markets. The region is expected to become the largest air travel market in the world by 2033 with 48% of all global traffic. Boeing expects more than 100 million new passengers to enter the Asia-Pacific market every year, larger than the annual number of passengers currently traveling through London’s Heathrow (70 million) or Atlanta (95 million).
Boeing shares were down about 1.1% in premarket trading Thursday, at $125.38 in a 52-week range of $98.99 to $144.57.
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