Why the 2016 Bullish Case for Boeing Has Nosedived

Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) saw shares fall 8.9% to close at $116.58 after posting earnings last Wednesday. The stock hit a new 52-week low of $115.02 earlier in the day despite inline results, due to a forecast that left analysts and investors cold.

Boeing had announced the week before that it was cutting the production rate of its 747 jumbo jet from one per month to one-half per month beginning in the fall. What the company waited to say is that it will also cut the production rate on the 777 from 8.33 per month to seven a month.

Analysts’ reactions were universally negative, at least as far as price targets are concerned. They still see potential upside in Boeing stock, just not as much.

Credit Suisse maintained a Neutral rating and lowered its price target from $158 to $144, even noting that a jittery market may have oversold Boeing stock.

Goldman Sachs maintained its Sell rating on the stock and cut Boeing’s price target from $106 to $102. Canaccord Genuity cut its price target from $165 to $150 while maintaining its Buy rating, and JPMorgan kept its Overweight rating but cut the price target from $177 to $142.
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Deutsche Bank maintained its Buy rating but cut the target from $175 to $160, and Jefferies maintained Boeing’s Buy rating but cut the price target from $185 to $165.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch lowered its price objective from $155 to $125, “triggered by [Boeing’s] weak 2016 guidance which factored in unexpected cuts in 737, 767, and 787 deliveries.”

S&P Capital IQ maintained its Buy rating but cut its price target from $180 to $160. The analysts said, “While we are disappointed with the outlook for deliveries and revenues for [2016], we still find the $490 billion backlog strong and think the valuation still looks attractive.”

RBC Capital Markets cut its price target from $153 to $143 and rates the stock at Sector Perform.

Industry analysts have been expecting Boeing to cut 777 production for well over a year now. When the company finally pulled the trigger, investors reacted as if they never expected the change.