Could These Major US Cities Survive a Nuclear Attack?

There are plenty of historical examples in the past century that have demonstrated the immense power of nuclear reactions, from World War II to Chernobyl. These events underscore the potential for widespread, long-lasting consequences, as the fallout from nuclear events can contaminate massive areas. This impacts human health, the environment, and even the viability of the land for decades. It is only now in 2024 that recent studies suggest that some areas around Chernobyl may finally be safe for farming again, 40 years after the devastating event. This illustrates just how catastrophic a nuclear bomb would be today. (These are the worst places to be in America during a nuclear attack.)

The threat of nuclear war has only increased over the years, as political tensions have risen among several nations that consider America an adversary. These countries include Russia and North Korea, both of which have nuclear capability. Some surmise the recent threat of nuclear war has risen as high or higher than the Cuban Missile Crisis of the early 1960s.

24/7 Wall St. used data from Nukemap, a site that simulates the detonation of nuclear bombs to find out how a nuclear strike would affect 25 of the largest U.S. cities (by population.) To determine the effects, we simulated what would happen in two different scenarios. One in which a 100-kiloton warhead was detonated in the air over a metropolitan area, and the second in which an 800-kiloton warhead was detonated. We ordered the list by total population of the metro area, from smallest to largest. All data is from Nukemap, except for population data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Why This Matters

It’s hard to fully grasp the range of devastation that would occur from a nuclear strike. By looking at data from Nukemap, we can visualize the scale of the impact on places familiar to us. As Bunn stated in his editorial, “Governments need help from scientists and engineers both in understanding the dangers that nuclear weapons continue to pose and in finding paths to reduce them.”

Here is how a nuclear attack would affect America’s largest cities:

Downtown Portland, Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA

• Population: 2,472,774
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 107,350 deaths, 182,800 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 548,573 (22%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 240,190 deaths, 474,100 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (59%)

Downtown, San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX

• Population: 2,510,211
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 69,890 deaths, 162,070 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 491,361 (20%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 194,060 deaths, 420,670 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.2 million (50%)

Downtown Orlando, Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL

• Population: 2,560,260
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 58,540 deaths, 138,270 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 435,029 (17%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 155,090 deaths, 391,120 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.1 million (45%)

Center City, Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC

• Population: 2,595,027
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 68,490 deaths, 108,490 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 347,989 (13%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 146,880 deaths, 279,030 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 852,169 (33%)

Historic District, Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD

• Population: 2,800,427
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 140,730 deaths, 247,980 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 739,488 (26%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 313,370 deaths, 522,010 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (54%)

Downtown, St. Louis, MO-IL

• Population: 2,806,349
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 63,050 deaths, 124,530 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 378,534 (13%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 159,820 deaths, 320,680 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 978,691 (35%)

Capitol Hill, Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO

• Population: 2,928,437
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 113,760 deaths, 209,240 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 627,216 (21%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 269,820 deaths, 540,620 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.7 million (56%)

Tampa Downtown, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL

• Population: 3,152,928
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 55,960 deaths, 110,320 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 342,282 (11%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 138,770 deaths, 294,970 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 891,404 (28%)

Core, San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA

• Population: 3,323,970
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 88,100 deaths, 206,740 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 629,171 (19%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 250,540 deaths, 495,530 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (44%)

Downtown West, Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI

• Population: 3,605,450
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 145,590 deaths, 220,450 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 675,421 (19%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 288,030 deaths, 537,220 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.6 million (45%)

Downtown Seattle, Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA

• Population: 3,928,498
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 130,440 deaths, 181,260 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 560,743 (14%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 261,270 deaths, 420,810 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.3 million (34%)

Downtown Detroit, Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI

• Population: 4,317,384
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 89,020 deaths, 181,160 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 549,298 (13%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 218,290 deaths, 489,470 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (34%)

Magnolia Center, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA

• Population: 4,600,396
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 40,410 deaths, 115,390 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 344,217 (7%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 126,940 deaths, 354,960 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.1 million (24%)

Mission District, San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA

• Population: 4,709,220
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 176,180 deaths, 392,400 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 985,716 (21%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 487,210 deaths, 534,470 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.6 million (33%)

Beacon Hill, Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH

• Population: 4,854,808
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 261,610 deaths, 424,160 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 1.2 million (25%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 569,630 deaths, 708,080 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 2.1 million (44%)

Central City, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

• Population: 4,860,338
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 66,930 deaths, 174,490 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 552,746 (11%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 193,210 deaths, 516,190 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.6 million (32%)

Georgia State Capitol, Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA

• Population: 5,947,008
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 102,380 deaths, 163,780 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 491,158 (8%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 218,450 deaths, 403,460 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.2 million (21%)

Center City, Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD

• Population: 6,092,403
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 241,270 deaths, 392,350 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 1.2 million (19%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 518,820 deaths, 836,230 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 2.5 million (41%)

Downtown Miami, Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL

• Population: 6,129,858
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 91,260 deaths, 185,890 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 558,871 (9%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 227,670 deaths, 481,990 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (24%)

White House, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

• Population: 6,250,309
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 233,810 deaths, 383,110 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 1.1 million (18%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 510,110 deaths, 837,240 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 2.5 million (40%)

Downtown Houston, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX

• Population: 6,979,613
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 123,380 deaths, 228,280 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 723,217 (10%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 298,880 deaths, 619,920 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.9 million (27%)

Downtown Dallas, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX

• Population: 7,451,858
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 87,590 deaths, 185,740 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 547,875 (7%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 220,500 deaths, 514,260 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 1.6 million (21%)

Chicago Loop, Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI

• Population: 9,478,801
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 324,080 deaths, 391,670 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 1.3 million (13%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 612,010 deaths, 951,550 injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 3.0 million (32%)

Financial District, Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA

• Population: 13,211,027
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 195,770 deaths, 510,880 injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 1.5 million (12%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 582,880 deaths, 1.5 million injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 4.4 million (33%)

Manhattan, Soho, New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA

• Population: 19,261,570
• Casualties from 100 kt detonation: 583,160 deaths, 1.3 million injuries
• Population within blast range of 102.3 sq. miles: 3.8 million (20%)
• Casualties from 800 kt detonation: 1.6 million deaths, 2.9 million injuries
• Population within blast range of 409.3 sq. miles: 8.6 million (45%)