Am I Fooling Myself with MSTY Dividends When My Account is at Break Even?

As even the most simple investor knows, timing the market is one of the most challenging things to do in life. You have a better chance of finding the fountain of youth than you do trying to know exactly when the right time is to get into any stock or ETF. 

For one Redditor posting in r/YieldMaxETFs, this truth strikes home as they are asking themselves why they are still at a break-even point with an investment in MSTY. This post validates the belief that no matter what you think about the right time to invest, predicting the market is as difficult as trying to guess winning lottery numbers. 

Buying MSTY In Early 2025 Was an Unknown Gamble

According to this Redditor’s post, they purchased MSTY in January 2025, which means they likely bought it somewhere between $27 at the low and just under $32 at the high. Unfortunately, since the Redditor made their purchase, the actual share price of MSTY has dropped considerably, closing at $17.55 on August 22, 2025. This isn’t its YTD low, which looks to be around $17.20, but this is a pretty notable difference from when the Redditor first bought in. 

Of course, for those buying MSTY, they aren’t necessarily focused on the growth of the share value, but on the yield and associated dividends, which ended at $1.1835 per share owned on July 31, 2025, the last recorded valuation. As a result, this Redditor is showing a profit and loss of negative $19, which is pretty much break-even. 

They specify that they haven’t taken any money out of the account and also haven’t bought any new shares, so whatever was purchased in January is what they are focused on. This is leading the Redditor to ask whether or not they, along with other Redditors who believe in YieldMax ETFs, are fooling themselves into sticking with these ETFs even if the value doesn’t go up for 8 months. 

Bought At a High Price Point

In this Redditor’s case, and it won’t be the same for everyone in the comments of this price, never mind other MSTY owners, they bought at a high, and the market has turned since. Whether as a result of tariff conversations or other conditions, the overall share value of MSTY has definitely not seen any growth since January, which the Redditor rightfully addresses. 

What we do know from this Redditor and what changes the math a little is that they are considering “break even” to account for their unrealized loss. Thankfully, this isn’t how break-even is calculated, and the Redditor should instead be focused on their “total return.” Other Redditors rightfully note that this Redditor might not have had the best market approach. Unsurprisingly, other investors in MSTY, including some who also bought in January, did an average cost down strategy, which meant that they are likely seeing more profit even with the share value dropping since. 

Ultimately, if the Redditor bought at $30 and there have been only $10 in distributions, but the share price dropped to $20, then yes, it’s possible to break even. Without the Redditor’s real numbers, the only real response is that they bought at a high price, and they are not correctly calculating a break-even point, and failed to average cost down as they should have. 

How to Move Forward In this Case

Instead of trying to track their break-even as simply looking at this with an unrealized loss, they should be looking at everything, including dividends, to really get an accurate look at how this investment is performing. 

Better yet, this Redditor needs to take a long and hard look at their investment strategy and see if MSTY really makes sense with their long-term goals. Most of the posters in the r/YieldMaxETFs know that the ride here doesn’t last forever, so they are trying to profit as much as possible, as quickly as possible. 

In the case of this Redditor, if they are looking for profits (and not necessarily fast profits), they should focus on diversifying their portfolio to avoid focusing on dividend profits. If you are thinking about getting into the YieldMax world, it’s super important that you also look at any market trends that could impact MSTY’s price and strong dividend, so you know the right time to exit your investment.