UBS Says Rising Inflation Will Help These Four Top Stocks to Buy

The April Producer Price Index for food rose a whopping 5.2% year-over-year, and research shows that shows traditional grocers are forced to choose between market share and margin preservation when food inflation rises at these rates. However, many traditional grocers do not have traffic momentum or margins to absorb incremental food inflation into their profit and loss sheets and pay for it in faster growth. These four stocks to buy have huge traffic and margins and are solid investment is a volatile market.

The Fresh Market Inc. (NASDAQ: TFM) has seen some solid insider buying over the past few months. CEO Craig Carlock recently made a strong 20,000 share purchase for $661,000. Two other directors of the company also purchased stock. There is no better indicator that a stock is cheap than solid insider buying, especially from the C suite level. The company’s move into markets where the competition is less prevalent has been a strong choice. The UBS price target for the stock is $45. The Thomson/First Call estimate is $39.53. The stock closed Thursday at $31.26 a share.

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Sprouts Farmers Market Inc. (NASDAQ: SFM) is another favorite name at UBS, which feels that the company’s brand equity is at an inflection point that is driving new store revenues higher. The UBS team also feels that the earnings momentum may suggest that there is upside to current guidance. Sprouts also is well liked for its conservative guidance, which just assumed 7% to 8% comparable store sales for 2014 despite last years’ 10% growth. The UBS price target is $43, and the consensus target is $35.58. Sprouts closed Thursday at $28.64.

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) had poor first-quarter numbers and blamed much of the miss on the horrible winter weather in many parts of the country. The company is jumping in to the organic space and could prove to be a formidable contender to its natural grocery competitors. The question is, will the typical customer of those stores feel comfortable with a typical Walmart shopping experience? One thing is for sure, the incredible purchasing power makes it much harder for vendors to raise prices to the retail giant. If they do, Walmart has the ability to pass it on through sheer bulk sales. Investors are paid a solid 2.4% dividend. The UBS price target is $85, and the consensus target is $80.81. Walmart closed Thursday at $76.83.

Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFM) is considered the bellwether for the group, and it may provide investors with an outstanding entry point to the stock at current levels. The stock was blasted after a poor earnings report. Whole Foods saw its stock plummet nearly 20% on May 6 because it failed to meet analysts’ expectations for the latest quarter. All told, the stock is off about 32% so far this year. The Whole Foods customer is extremely loyal and not as price conscious as typical grocery store customers. That gives the company the ability to pass on price increases as inflation heats up. Investors are paid a 1.2% dividend. The UBS price target is $48, and the consensus is at $47.54. Whole Foods closed Thursday at $38.76.

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Inflation, once again, is a word that seems to belong in hushed conversation. The reality is that this entire country could use a touch of inflation. Rising prices means rising revenues. That in turn can lead to job creation. With that in mind, too much inflation and things can become horrible. Check the history books for a look at the 1970s. In the meantime, the UBS top names to buy are reasonably priced and should fare well as inflation creeps back into the economy.