Why Gap Could Still Face Even More Downgrades

Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS) does not report first-quarter earnings until Thursday, May 19, but the stock was mauled after the company reported same-store sales numbers after markets closed last Monday. The company got no help from other retailers reporting quarterly results last week because none showed any signs of life.

Same-store sales in April dropped 7%, compared with a forecast 1.1% increase from research firm Retail Metrics. Gap said that earnings would range around $0.31 to $0.32, well below the $0.44 consensus.

Particularly distressing to analysts and investors alike was the company’s failure to deliver on a promised turnaround this spring. CEO Art Peck seemed surprised: “Our industry is evolving and we must transform at a faster pace, while focusing our energy on what matters most to our customers.” Did Gap just notice?

The company has been cutting costs and reducing debt for a while now, but it may have reached the limit of what these moves can do. Analysts are wary, but they haven’t yet given up on Gap yet. Oppenheimer, for instance, has a Perform rating on the stock, but lowered its price target from $24 to $20:

[Gap]’s negative comp trajectory is continuing into ’16, with Gap division seeing similar trends sequentially (Spring was expected as time for “no excuses” with the turnaround) and Old Navy decelerating further. Decision to streamline the model likely aided by expense cushions starting to run out (SG&A is down over $100M since ’12; focus on debt paydown reduces FCF for buyback); Fisher family ownership (45% of shares, 2 Board seats) could provide some downside protection to the stock.

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Many more analysts weighed in as well, all lowering their price targets:

• Baird cut its price target from $26 to $22 with a Neutral rating.
• Bernstein dropped its price target from $23 to $17.
• Credit Suisse cut its price target from $27 to $21 and rates the stock Underperform.
• Deutsche Bank lowered its price target from $21 to $17.
• Goldman Sachs reduced its price target from $24 to $22.
• Jefferies cut its price target from $34 to $28 and rates the stock a Buy.
• JPMorgan lowered its price target from $20 to $18 with an Underweight rating.
• Keybanc lowered its price target from $36 to $33 with an Overweight rating.
• Nomura slashed its price target from $26 to $19 and has a Neutral rating.
• RBC cut its price target from $26 to $20 and rates the stock a Sector Perform.
• Stifel chopped its price target from $35 to $28.
• SunTrust Robinson cut its price target from $23 to $20 with a Neutral rating.
• Topeka Capital slashed its price target from $40 to $22 and cut its rating from Buy to Hold.
• UBS cut its price target to $18 from $23.
• Wedbush reduced its price target from $25 to $19 with a Neutral rating.

The consensus earnings per share estimate when Gap reports results this coming Thursday is now $0.32, on revenues of $3.52 billion. Last year the company reported earnings of $0.56 per share on revenues of $3.66 billion.

Shares closed at $17.62 on Friday, down about 1.3% for the day, in a 52-week trading range of $17.33 to $39.59. The 52-week low was posted Friday as well. The consensus price target on the stock is $21.13, but many of the recent changes may not yet be included in the calculation.