With a share price decline of about 21% so far in 2015, analysts and investors are going to be looking for a big improvement over the prior quarter’s numbers. EPS came in right on the consensus estimate in the company’s second fiscal quarter, but missed revenue estimates. A company with Whole Foods’ history of an earnings multiple above 30 is going to get some poor reviews when that multiple falls into the mid- to low-20s.
The Street estimate for same-store sales is 2.9% and a recent note from Oppenheimer suggests that 2.5% is a more realistic estimate. If comparable sales miss the growth estimate, Whole Foods will face a tough day when the market opens on Thursday.
Here’s what analysts have had to say recently:
- SunTrust Robinson Humphrey reiterated a Buy rating with a price target of $55
- Piper Jaffray reiterated a Hold rating with a price target of $45
- Telsey Advisory Group maintained a Market Perform rating but lowered its price target to $47
- Oppenheimer maintained an Outperform rating and also lowered its price target from $50 to $48
- Longbow Research raised its rating from Sell to Neutral and cut its price target to $36
Competition has heated up in the organic foods market, with major chains like Walmart getting into organic food sales to say nothing of several new entrants like Sprouts Farmers Markets in the sector. Whole Foods is developing a value-oriented chain it calls “365 by Whole Foods Market” that it hopes will attract more value-driven customers who want better quality food but are living on a tighter budget than the store’s traditionally more affluent shoppers.
Whole Foods’ stock is trading up about 1.3% shortly before noon on Wednesday at $41.46 in a 52-week range of $36.18 to $57.57. The consensus price target on the shares is $47.76.
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