Why Goldman Sachs Thinks Domino’s Pizza Is Cooling Off

By Chris Lange Published May 25, 10:35AM EDT

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Why Goldman Sachs Thinks Domino’s Pizza Is Cooling Off — © J. Michael Jones / Getty Images

Domino’s Pizza Inc. (NYSE: DPZ | DPZ Price Prediction) has been a huge beneficiary of the reopening trade as one of the top restaurant stocks. Offering a food delivery service over the course of the pandemic was great insulation for the business and maintaining its revenue stream, but with reopening underway comparable sales might not be favorable, at least according to Goldman Sachs.

Goldman Sachs downgraded the shares to Neutral from Outperform but reiterated a $450 price target, which implies upside of about 7% from the most recent closing price of $420.90.

For the bull case, the investment house believes there could be more upside as a result of continued momentum in same-store sales (SSS), significant acceleration in unit growth, and better-than-expected international SSS/unit growth. Risks to the downside include third part pressure on domestic SSS, franchisee top-line growth and margins and a significant increase in competitor activity.

Domino’s reported high-teens SSS trends beginning in the second quarter of 2020 as the pandemic forced consumers to shift behavior to off-premise dining. Pizza delivery was a clear beneficiary, and now the company is up against lapping these strong results. While Goldman Sachs continues to believe in the long-term story for the stock, the firm also recognizes that the challenging comps (which likely drive negative SSS trends) coupled with the recent share performance makes for a more challenging setup from here.

[nativounit]

In the report, Goldman Sachs said that it continues to believe in the long-term story for Domino’s and see the company’s strong technology ecosystem and industry-leading franchise unit economics as supportive of the long-term algorithm for 6% to 8% unit growth and 8% to 10% systemwide sales growth. The firm sees the risk/reward more fairly balanced at current valuation levels, especially with challenging SSS laps ahead.

Goldman Sachs further detailed:

2020 was a banner year for Domino’s as consumers’ purchasing habits shifted (almost entirely) to off-premise dining, which drove Domino’s franchisees to see another year of record unit level profitability. Domino’s franchisees achieved ~$177K in EBITDA on average per store in 2020 (+24% yoy). While these strong results continue to support the longer-term opportunity for Domino’s to continue to drive unit development, challenging SSS compares that ramp in 2Q21, and through the balance of the year, could drive increased levels of volatility for Domino’s shares in the near term.

Domino’s Pizza stock traded down about 1% on Tuesday, at $415.86 in a 52-week range of $319.71 to $447.50. The consensus price target is $437.79.

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About the Author Chris Lange →

Chris Lange is a writer for 24/7 Wall St., based in Houston. He has covered financial markets over the past decade with an emphasis on healthcare, tech, and IPOs. During this time, he has published thousands of articles with insightful analysis across these complex fields. Currently, Lange's focus is on military and geopolitical topics.

Lange's work has been quoted or mentioned in Forbes, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, MSN, Yahoo, The Verge, Vice, The Intelligencer, Quartz, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Fox Business, International Business Times, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Barron’s, Benzinga, and many other major publications.

A graduate of Southwestern University in Georgetown, Texas, Lange majored in business with a particular focus on investments. He has previous experience in the banking industry and startups.