This Will Be America’s Largest State in 2040

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By Douglas A. McIntyre Published
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This Will Be America’s Largest State in 2040

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In 1960, according to the Census Bureau, New York state was the largest in America, based on population, at 16,782,304. That was up 13.2% over the 1950 figure. It was inevitable that New York would lose its position. Over the same period, California’s population rose 48.5% to 15,717,204 and would continue to surge. Florida barely made the top 10 by this measure.

Fast forward to 2020. New York is the fourth-largest state by population at 19,378,102. California is first at 37,253,956, followed by Texas at 25,145,561 and Florida at 18,801,310. Most likely New York will grow very little over the next decade, while the populations of Texas and Florida rise rapidly. California will be the largest state in 2040. (On the flip side, this will be America’s smallest state in 2040.)

State populations are important for several reasons, not the least of which is federal government aid and the number of members of the House of Representatives.

The University of Virginia Weldon Cooper Center for Public Services has a Demographics Research Group that forecasts population both by state and nationally. The work of their experts is well regarded, and their population projections “have been widely used by many federal agencies and states,” according to the center.

To find America’s largest states in 2040, 24/7 Wall St. reviewed National Population Projections from the Demographics Research Group. The group forecasts population by state and age, including population predictions by state in 2040. 

By 2040, Texas will have come very close to being the largest state in America. California will have kept its first-place spot, and the spread between Florida and New York will have increased. New York’s population will have barely grown over the next two decades, while Florida’s will have jumped by over 30%. (By area, this is the largest state in America.)

Click here to see America’s largest state in 2040

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25. Louisiana
> 2040 projected population: 5,062,780
> 2020 population: 4,742,900 (25th highest)

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24. Oregon
> 2040 projected population: 5,164,041
> 2020 population: 4,267,534 (24th lowest)

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23. Wisconsin
> 2040 projected population: 5,997,137
> 2020 population: 5,837,176 (21st highest)

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22. South Carolina
> 2040 projected population: 6,352,502
> 2020 population: 5,184,564 (23rd highest)

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21. Missouri
> 2040 projected population: 6,359,970
> 2020 population: 6,161,471 (18th highest)

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20. Minnesota
> 2040 projected population: 6,364,886
> 2020 population: 5,683,666 (22nd highest)

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19. Maryland
> 2040 projected population: 6,842,902
> 2020 population: 6,161,345 (19th highest)

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18. Indiana
> 2040 projected population: 7,095,000
> 2020 population: 6,737,581 (17th highest)

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17. Colorado
> 2040 projected population: 7,692,907
> 2020 population: 5,843,359 (20th highest)

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16. Massachusetts
> 2040 projected population: 7,742,628
> 2020 population: 6,982,092 (15th highest)

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15. Tennessee
> 2040 projected population: 7,823,662
> 2020 population: 6,861,856 (16th highest)

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14. Arizona
> 2040 projected population: 9,166,279
> 2020 population: 7,268,694 (14th highest)

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13. New Jersey
> 2040 projected population: 9,470,012
> 2020 population: 9,088,074 (11th highest)

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12. Washington
> 2040 projected population: 9,776,126
> 2020 population: 7,681,818 (13th highest)

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11. Virginia
> 2040 projected population: 9,876,728
> 2020 population: 8,655,021 (12th highest)

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10. Michigan
> 2040 projected population: 9,960,115
> 2020 population: 9,992,315 (10th highest)

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9. Ohio
> 2040 projected population: 11,751,540
> 2020 population: 11,705,262 (7th highest)

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8. Illinois
> 2040 projected population: 12,397,564
> 2020 population: 12,791,188 (6th highest)

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7. North Carolina
> 2040 projected population: 12,658,927
> 2020 population: 10,568,033 (9th highest)

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6. Pennsylvania
> 2040 projected population: 12,809,150
> 2020 population: 12,844,885 (5th highest)

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5. Georgia
> 2040 projected population: 12,820,271
> 2020 population: 10,725,351 (8th highest)

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4. New York
> 2040 projected population: 20,873,488
> 2020 population: 20,031,150 (4th highest)

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3. Florida
> 2040 projected population: 28,886,983
> 2020 population: 21,877,257 (3rd highest)

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2. Texas
> 2040 projected population: 40,015,913
> 2020 population: 29,604,099 (2nd highest)

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1. California
> 2040 projected population: 46,467,001
> 2020 population: 40,438,640 (the highest)

Photo of Douglas A. McIntyre
About the Author Douglas A. McIntyre →

Douglas A. McIntyre is the co-founder, chief executive officer and editor in chief of 24/7 Wall St. and 24/7 Tempo. He has held these jobs since 2006.

McIntyre has written thousands of articles for 24/7 Wall St. He is an expert on corporate finance, the automotive industry, media companies and international finance. He has edited articles on national demographics, sports, personal income and travel.

His work has been quoted or mentioned in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, NBC News, Time, The New Yorker, HuffPost USA Today, Business Insider, Yahoo, AOL, MarketWatch, The Atlantic, Bloomberg, New York Post, Chicago Tribune, Forbes, The Guardian and many other major publications. McIntyre has been a guest on CNBC, the BBC and television and radio stations across the country.

A magna cum laude graduate of Harvard College, McIntyre also was president of The Harvard Advocate. Founded in 1866, the Advocate is the oldest college publication in the United States.

TheStreet.com, Comps.com and Edgar Online are some of the public companies for which McIntyre served on the board of directors. He was a Vicinity Corporation board member when the company was sold to Microsoft in 2002. He served on the audit committees of some of these companies.

McIntyre has been the CEO of FutureSource, a provider of trading terminals and news to commodities and futures traders. He was president of Switchboard, the online phone directory company. He served as chairman and CEO of On2 Technologies, the video compression company that provided video compression software for Adobe’s Flash. Google bought On2 in 2009.

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