From Internet Outsider
eBay has now owned Skype for more than four full quarters. How’s that little $4 billion flyer doing?
Answer: Pretty well, actually. Not amazing, not terrible. Pretty well.
eBay doesn’t release much Skype information, but we can still get a good snapshot:
- After decelerating through Q2 last year, both revenue and user-growth are now reaccelerating.
- If the current growth trajectory remains stable, the company should do $400-$500 million in revenue in 2007 (which would put the purchase price below 10X revenue–a far cry from the outrageous binge-buy that many commentators described).
- Monthly revenue per user is gradually increasing and now stands at about $0.13.
Want to see for yourself? Fiddle with the future projections? Then download this free Excel model, courtesy of Internet Outsider. See the second page, labeled "key," for an explanation of how the model works and instructions on how to change the assumptions.
Download skype_financial_model.xls
(I’ve always been curious whether such models would be of general interest…I’m about to find out. This one’s an Excel model. It was virus-free when I uploaded it, so blame Typepad if you come down with something ghastly.)
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