Canadian Solar Earnings Falter, Outlook Also Soft

For the full year, Canadian Solar posted EPS of $0.63 on revenues of $1.65 billion, compared with an EPS loss of $4.53 on revenues of $1.29 billion in the prior year. The consensus estimates for 2013 called for EPS of $0.62 on revenues of $1.64 billion.

For the first quarter of 2014, the company expects to ship 470 to 490 megawatts of solar modules, for total revenue in the range of $415 million to $430 million and gross margins of 14% to 16%. The revenue total is well below the consensus estimate of $517.78 million. Canadian Solar blames seasonality in the Chinese market, which meant that longer shipping times will delay revenue recognition until the second quarter. Production was also lower in the first quarter due to the Lunar New Year holiday. For the full year, the company forecasts revenues of $2.7 billion to $2.9 billion, on the light side of the consensus estimate of $2.88 billion.

This report is a disappointment for Canadian Solar. The company’s stock has appreciated by more than 1,000% in the past 12 months, far outperforming any of its competitors. The worst performing solar stock over the past 12 months is First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR) and it is up more than 125%.

Along with Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) and JinkoSolar Holding Co. Ltd. (NYSE: JKS), Canadian Solar has come back from the overcapacity issue that threatened virtually every solar PV maker. As always in China, the government helped pick winners and losers, but these companies expanded their downstream businesses by adding utility-scale projects in China, the United States and Japan and lowered their manufacturing costs to the point where they could post positive margins.

As we might expect, Canadian Solar shares were down about 4% in premarket trading, at $41.90 in a 52-week range of $3.12 to $44.50. Thomson Reuters had a consensus analyst price target of around $49.00 before these results were announced.