How the Market and Analysts Value Apple Ahead of Earnings

By Jon C. Ogg Updated Jul 21, 6:34AM EDT · Published Jul 20, 9:16AM EDT

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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) will dominate earnings season on Tuesday afternoon when it reports earnings. The stock has undergone its split, and no significant pullback has been seen. In fact, Wall Street analysts seem to have been stepping all over themselves to raise their target prices and/or formal ratings ahead of the earnings report.

Apple’s market cap is now almost $570 billion, but we may see an adjustment to that figure depending upon how much cash the company used in buying back stock. The acquisition of Beats may have been widely publicized, but it was effectively just a footnote.

Earnings expectations from Thomson Reuters were last represented as $1.23 per share and $37.93 billion in revenues for this past quarter (its fiscal third quarter). Apple’s guidance was $36 to $38 billion in revenue. Estimates for the coming quarter are $1.34 earnings per share and $40.44 billion in revenue. Apple is now valued on the market at 15 times expected 2014 earnings and 13.5 times expected 2015 earnings.

Gross margin last quarter was 39.3% (versus 37.5% a year earlier), and Apple guided its margin for this quarter in a range of between 37% and 38%. Keep in mind that international sales accounted for 66% of the last quarter’s revenue.

24/7 Wall St. has compiled an analyst rating montage to see how analysts are valuing the stock going forward. After closing at $94.43 on Friday, Apple’s 52-week post-split adjusted trading range is $59.82 to $97.10.

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What is interesting about Apple is that the focus may be more ahead on the new product and refresh cycle releases than on how its numbers were in the quarter, as iPhone and iPad sales may have stagnated in the United States. We also believe that a key focus will be how many shares Apple bought back now that Tim Cook and fellow management decided to get more aggressive on the stock front — the company used almost $21 billion buying back stock and paying dividends in the prior quarter.

Apple’s consensus analyst price target from Thomson Reuters is $99.57, but this has been rising handily as you will see below. The recent analyst calls we have tracked are as follows:

Apple was started with a Buy rating and given a $110 price target (versus a prior $95.32 close) at Citigroup on July 16.

Barclays raised Apple to Overweight from Equal Weight and the price target was raised all the way up to $110 from $95 (versus a $95.22 close) on July 14.

Morgan Stanley maintained its Overweight rating and raised the price target to $110 from $99 (versus a $95.22 close) on July 14.

Canaccord Genuity reiterated its Buy rating on Apple and the price target was raised to $112 from $102 (versus a $95.04 close) on July 11.

Mizuho maintained its Buy rating and raised its price target to $105 from $90 (versus a prior $95.97 close) on July 8.

Evercore Partners reiterated its Overweight rating on Apple and the price target was raised to $115 (versus a prior close of $93.52) on July 2.

Barron’s included Apple as one of the World’s Most Respected Companies on the weekend of June 28.

Needham & Co. reiterated its Buy rating and raised its price target to $97 from $86 (versus a $90.83 prior close) on June 24.

Societe Generale raised Apple to Buy from Neutral and raised its adjusted price target to $105 from $82 (versus a $92.08 prior close) on June 18.

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Upcoming initiatives likely are the iWatch and fitness initiatives, as well as the expected iPhone 6 with a larger screen format.

Apple recently ranked as number 10 on the 2014 Customer Service Hall of Fame, behind Hewlett-Packard, Sony and Amazon.

About the Author Jon C. Ogg →

Jon Ogg has been a financial news analyst since 1997. Mr. Ogg set up one of the first audio squawk box services for traders called TTN, which he sold in 2003. He has previously worked as a licensed broker to some of the top U.S. and E.U. financial institutions, managed capital, and has raised private capital at the seed and venture stage. He has lived in Copenhagen, Denmark, as well as New York and Chicago, and he now lives in Houston, Texas. Jon received a Bachelor of Business Administration in finance at University of Houston in 1992. a673b.bigscoots-temp.com.