Why Apple Is Likely to Beat Sales Estimates Again

By Trey Thoelcke Published Jun 11, 1:50PM EDT

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Lately, Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone hasn’t had much time in the spotlight, which has mostly been reserved for the Apple Watch. However, with earnings scheduled for next month, the number of iPhones the company sells is most definitely a number to keep an eye on.

Not only is the iPhone good for most of the company’s overall revenue, but this contribution is growing. In the first quarter of 2014, the iPhone generated around 58.7% of the company’s overall revenue. By the first quarter of 2015, this figure had grown to 68.61%. In the most recent quarter, it stood at nearly 69.5%. Research firm IHS estimated that the profit margin on iPhones may be as high as 69% to 70%, meaning the product also accounts for the lion’s share of the company’s overall profit.

For the first quarter of this fiscal year, which included the holiday period, the company delivered record revenue and earnings, selling some 74.5 million iPhones. The second quarter marked its second-best quarterly profit and iPhone sales ever. What can we expect from the third quarter?

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At the moment, the Factset consensus for iPhone sales in the June quarter is at 46 million units, which would mark a significant increase over last year’s tally of 35.2 million iPhones. However, many individual estimates are even higher. A Cleveland Research analyst has put his estimate at 49 million units for the quarter. A UBS analyst recently upped his sales projection to 51.1 million units. Morgan Stanley has chimed in with an estimate of 50 million units. As such, the Factset consensus seems to be somewhat conservative.

Apple furthermore has a history of beating sales estimates. Last quarter, the company sold 61.1 million iPhones, crushing a Wall Street consensus estimate of 54.9 million units, as well as beating Stifel’s more bullish projection of 59.6 million units. Moreover, China overtook the United States in iPhone sales for the first time during the period, and the region is now regarded as the company’s prime growth engine. With smartphone penetration in the country still below 50%, and steady market share gains for Apple, there is still plenty of room to grow.

While it is impossible to predict exactly how many iPhones Apple sold in the third quarter, it is likely that the figure will beat the 46 million Factset estimate. In fact, its strength in the Chinese market means it could well top 50 million units for the period, roughly taking the midpoint of the more bullish analyst estimates. The current consensus is for third-quarter earnings of $1.76 per share, up from $1.28 last year. If history is any guide, the company having beaten estimates every quarter since the first in 2013, this number may once again prove to be too low, paving the way for further upside momentum.

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About the Author Trey Thoelcke →

Trey has been an editor and author at 24/7 Wall St. for more than a decade, where he has published thousands of articles analyzing corporate earnings, dividend stocks, short interest, insider buying, private equity, and market trends. His comprehensive coverage spans the full spectrum of financial markets, from blue-chip stalwarts to emerging growth companies.

Beyond 24/7 Wall St., Trey has created and edited financial content for Benzinga and AOL's BloggingStocks, contributing additional hundreds of articles to the investment community. He previously oversaw the 24/7 Climate Insights site, managing editorial operations and content strategy, and currently oversees and creates content for My Investing News.

Trey's editorial expertise extends across multiple publishing environments. He served as production editor at Dearborn Financial Publishing and development editor at Kaplan, where he helped shape financial education materials. Earlier in his career, he worked as a writer-producer at SVE. His freelance editing portfolio includes work for prestigious clients such as Sage Publications, Rand McNally, the Institute for Supply Management, the American Library Association, Eggplant Literary Productions, and Spiegel.

Outside of financial journalism, Trey writes fiction and has been an active member of the writing community for years, overseeing a long-running critique group and moderating workshop sessions at regional conventions. He lives with his family in an old house in the Midwest.