Should Anyone Be Surprised by 3M’s Lower Guidance?

By Chris Lange Updated Jan 13, 4:04PM EST · Published Dec 15, 11:35AM EST

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Should Anyone Be Surprised by 3M’s Lower Guidance? — © Thinkstock

3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) is finally hitting its stride in 2015, and it is never too late to have a rally. So far on the year, the stock is down, but with this most recent announcement, things are turning around. The company just announced guidance for the 2016 full year, along with an update for 2015.

Reflecting the realities of a continued slow-growth global economy, 3M expects 2015 full-year organic growth of approximately 1.0%, versus prior guidance of 1.5% to 2.0%. Earnings per share (EPS) is anticipated to be approximately $7.55, against a prior range of $7.60 to $7.65. The Thomson Reuters consensus estimates call for $7.63 in EPS on $30.38 billion in revenue.

As for 2016, EPS is expected to be in the range of $8.10 to $8.45, an increase of 7% to 12%, compared to the consensus estimate of $8.40. Organic local-currency sales growth is expected in the range of 1% to 3%, and the free cash flow conversion rate of 95% to 105%.

The company also is progressing toward a more efficient business model, which includes standardizing business processes through a new, global ERP system. By 2020, 3M expects these efforts to result in $500 million to $700 million in annual operational savings, and an additional $500 million reduction in working capital.
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Inge G. Thulin, Chairman, president and chief executive, commented on the outlook:

We remain committed to executing our playbook, controlling the controllable, and making investments for long-term success. We are building our company for efficient growth in 2016 and beyond.

A few analysts weighed in on 3M leading into this announcement:

Credit Suisse has an Outperform rating and raised its price target to $175 from $167.
Barclays also has an Outperform rating and raised its price target to $150 from $135.
RBC Capital has an Underperform rating and lowered its price target to $138 from $141.

Shares of 3M were trading down 4.6% at $150.38 Tuesday morning, with a consensus analyst price target of $162.07 and a 52-week trading range of $134.00 to $170.50.

About the Author Chris Lange →

Chris Lange is a writer for 24/7 Wall St., based in Houston. He has covered financial markets over the past decade with an emphasis on healthcare, tech, and IPOs. During this time, he has published thousands of articles with insightful analysis across these complex fields. Currently, Lange's focus is on military and geopolitical topics.

Lange's work has been quoted or mentioned in Forbes, The New York Times, Business Insider, USA Today, MSN, Yahoo, The Verge, Vice, The Intelligencer, Quartz, Nasdaq, The Motley Fool, Fox Business, International Business Times, The Street, Seeking Alpha, Barron’s, Benzinga, and many other major publications.

A graduate of Southwestern University in Georgetown, Texas, Lange majored in business with a particular focus on investments. He has previous experience in the banking industry and startups.