Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) has had a rough time since 2014. The only true large domestic survivor in DRAM production migrated into NAND and shares rose from roughly $5.00 in late 2012 to $35.00 for 2014. That was then. Now shares are back down close to $10.00.
Micron recently hosted its analyst day meeting, and 24/7 Wall St. has seen many research reports come out on the DRAM/NAND leader. These analysts have very mixed views, and this is a situation that remains both fluid and in transition. One thing that investors have to consider here, on top of just very mixed views, is that estimates for earnings are all over the place.
It turns out that being in DRAM chips is like being in a commodity business, but where the price of chips only goes down through time. This creates an environment in which investors just do not want to pay up for a market multiple on earnings.
Micron’s Thomson Reuters consensus earnings per share (EPS) estimates are $0.43 for 2016 (August) and $1.48 for 2017. That means that it is valued at 23 times this year’s expected earnings but valued at only seven times next year’s expected earnings. Does it matter that its earnings from a year ago were $2.43 per share?
The many analysts that have keyed in on Micron after the analyst day include Wells Fargo, Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, S&P, Morningstar, Cowen, Mizuho, Nomura and Wedbush.
[recirclink id=314960]
Wells Fargo’s David Wong maintained his Outperform rating and his valuation range is $16 to $19. The takeaway was that Micron’s upcoming DRAM and NAND technology transitions could help drive bit growth over the next two years while also driving down cost per bit and helping Micron’s margins. DRAM bit output is expected to take a step up in the second half of 2016, level off in the first half of fiscal 2017 and then begin rising in the second half of 2017. The firm’s investment thesis was explained as:
Our valuation range is based on approximately a 13x to 16x multiple of our FY17 EPS estimate of $1.20. This multiple is consistent with where Micron has traded at various times in the past. Risks include highly volatile pricing for DRAM and NAND flash, the need for relatively high levels of capital investment, and large swings in Micron’s profitability that have occurred in the past and which we think are likely to continue in the future.
Micron has a diversified portfolio of DRAM, NAND flash and NOR flash memory products. The company has made a number of significant investments and acquisitions to expand its manufacturing capability at what we consider to be advantageous prices. However, we think there is risk associated with the high fixed cost and commodity-like nature of the semiconductor memory business.
Credit Suisse has an Outperform rating and a $20 price target. The firm’s John Pitzer noted that the memory industry has structurally improved but Micron has seen some quarterly declines. He believes that any progress in closing the cost gap will drive stock performance, as well as that the May quarter will be an inflection in DRAM with a late 2016 inflection point in NAND.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch has an Underperform rating on Micron now. The firm’s Stephen Suttmeier has a $10.00 price objective. Merrill Lynch’s last report on Micron was a chartist report, but it was also negative by saying it broke down from a three-month or so bearish continuation pattern on the move below $14.78 with a projected deeper decline toward the $9.70 area, and resistance is up at $16.20 to $18.10.
Morningstar has a Buy rating on Micron and a fair value estimate of $23.00. This firm sees Micron as undervalued, but it was after weak earnings trends and it has no real moat to fend off competition.
S&P Capital IQ has a Hold rating but has an $18.00 price target for 12 months out. The analyst thinks that revenues will decline 19% in fiscal 2016 (August) but should rebound 20% in fiscal 2017.
[recirclink id=315073]
Other post-analyst day research calls seen were as follows:
- Cowen maintained its Buy rating.
- Mizuho raised it to Buy from Neutral with a $12 price target.
- Nomura has a Neutral rating but cut its target price to $12 from $15.
- Wedbush Securities has a Neutral rating but cut its target to $11.50 from $15.
Even before the analyst day meetings, Goldman Sachs had a bit of an unusual upgrade on February 1. The firm raised its official rating to Neutral from Sell but the price target was cut to $11 from $13 in the call.
Another issue to consider is that short sellers remain active in Micron. At the end of January, its short interest was 56.63 million shares. That might be lower than the previous reading of 65.01 million and less than the peak of 79 million shares short in early 2015, but it is a very active short interest stock.
Micron shares were last seen up 4.3% at $10.45 on Tuesday, within a 52-week range of $9.31 to $32.84. The consensus analyst target is still listed as over $16.00, but that could change after the rest of the analysts chime in with new or adjusted price targets.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks