Forgotten among concerns about Apple Inc.’s (NASDAQ: AAPL) drop in share price is that the recent recovery has its shares inching back toward all-time highs. Good news about sales of its new iPhone SE, or a strong quarterly report, could press the stock price high enough to challenge the period from February 2015 to July 2015, when it traded occasionally above $130.
While Apple’s shares are down 14% over the past year, they have recovered 12% in the past three months and traded at $110. That means they trade at the same price as in November 2014, when they then popped above $130 for the first time in February of last year. Three months — that was all it took.
Apple management has set model goals for the quarterly results it is about to release:
Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2016 second quarter:
- revenue between $50 billion and $53 billion
- gross margin between 39 percent and 39.5 percent
- operating expenses between $6 billion and $6.1 billion
- other income/(expense) of $325 million
- tax rate of 25.5 percent
The company is notorious for low-balling forecasts, which means revenue could post at the high end of the forecast, or better.
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According to Yahoo! Finance, the median price target of the 39 analysts who follow the stock is $130. The high end of the range is a preposterous $200. If some of these experts are correct, earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter about to be announced may only drop fractionally compared to the same quarter last year. If EPS are instead flat for the period, the stock could soar.
And there is always hope for a massive success for the iPhone 7. Designs for the product already have leaked. Those leaks will be more frequent and more accurate as a probable launch in September happens. The thrill of anticipation also may help Apple’s share price.
A $130 share price compared to the current one of $110 seems like a stretch, but history says otherwise.
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